The AAII data showing over 50% bearish is historically contrarian and can signal a near-term bottom. But I’m cautious—oil-driven inflation and a hawkish Fed are the bigger constraints, and they could keep pressure on valuations and limit upside. In that context, 6500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ may act more like resistance than strong support.
Overall, I’m not aggressively buying the dip. I see this as a tradeable bounce in a volatile environment rather than a confirmed bottom. I’d prefer to scale in selectively and wait for clearer signals from oil or the Fed before taking stronger positions.
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