Triple Witching Playbook
$NVDA$
High probability: range-bound snoozefest.
Low probability: total meltdown.
War’s not over. Everyone’s waiting for Trump to drop the hammer. If he does — buy the crash. If peace breaks out instead? Short squeeze goes vertical.
Usually selling calls here is risky. But for NVDA — and the rest of Mag 7 — squeeze potential is capped. Market’s glued to Q2 capex. No upside till earnings. Pick a strike with room, hedge it. Call spreads are fine.
Institutions ran it back: same 185–190 spread as last week $NVDA 20260320 185.0 CALL$ $NVDA 20260320 190.0 CALL$ .
170 puts $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$ saw heavy sells. Betting Trump cools things this week.
Triple witching: equity, index, futures options all expire. That locks price ranges tight. NVDA pin? 180–190 if nothing breaks.
If something breaks? Then we're in a different world.
Half size if you’re itchy. Cash if you’re not.
Other names seeing OTM put volume:
$ORCL 20260320 126.0 PUT$ — 44k
$AMD 20260320 155.0 PUT$ — 26.6k
$AVGO 20260320 275.0 PUT$ — 27k
$SMH 20260320 340.0 PUT$ — 25.5k
$SPY$
Calls priced a squeeze this week. We got a rally Monday — just not much of one. Didn't even tag 675.
Puts priced a crash to 642. Didn't happen Monday. Won't happen Tuesday either. Friday pin: >660.
Tail case: 630.
$MU$
Earnings range: 400–500. Numbers look solid. Memory pricing strong into 2028. But tape’s crowded, macro’s messy. Volatility both ways.
Put flow looks ugly — mostly externals, not the business. Reminds me of TSLA at certain moments.
Bottom line: won't break 360. And 260? Buyers will swarm.
$USO$
Arb flow active: sell 180 call $USO 20260320 180.0 CALL$ . Betting no oil spike this week.
Overall view: USO holds 100+.
$KWEB$
Bounce target still ~32.
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