To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 16Mar2026)

Inflation Insights

One key indicator for forecasting inflation trends is the Producer Price Index (PPI). For February, the PPI is expected to rise by 0.3%. This index is particularly valuable because increases in producer-level prices often translate into higher costs for consumers over time, helping us anticipate changes in consumer inflation.

Crude Oil Inventory and Consumption

Crude oil inventory serves as another important tool for predicting shifts in consumer behavior. Oil producers adjust their output based on anticipated demand, making inventory levels a useful gauge of overall economic consumption. Monitoring these figures can provide insights into the health of the broader economy.

Upcoming Federal Reserve Decision

The most closely watched event in the coming week will be the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with forecasts pointing to a 3.75% rate. Alongside this announcement, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release a statement and host a press conference. These events are expected to shed light on the Fed’s future policy direction, which remains heavily influenced by incoming economic data.

Manufacturing Outlook

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March is forecasted at 17.5. This index is a critical reference for the current state and future outlook of the manufacturing sector, which appears to be contracting.

Labor Market Conditions

Initial jobless claims are expected to total 215,000. Any deviation from this forecast could introduce volatility into the stock market. More importantly, this figure is one of several data points the Federal Reserve considers when making decisions about interest rates.

Real Estate Trends

New home sales for January are forecasted at 723,000 units. This metric serves as an important barometer for the health of the real estate market. Many homeowners have reported difficulties in selling their properties, and given current trends, some may be compelled to sell at lower prices.

Earnings Calendar (16Mar2026)

This week, several major companies are set to release their earnings reports, which will be closely watched by investors and analysts. Notable earnings announcements include Micron, Accenture, Alibaba, FedEx, and Tencent. These results are expected to provide valuable insights into the performance and outlook of key sectors such as technology, consulting, e-commerce, logistics, and digital services.

FedEx: A Logistics Sector Indicator

FedEx stands out as a leading logistics provider whose earnings can offer a clearer perspective on the overall health of the economy. Examining FedEx’s financial results and market performance gives a sense of how well the logistics sector—and, by extension, economic activity—is faring.

The most recent closing price for FedEx stock was $351.68, representing a notable 48.4% increase compared to one year ago. Technical analysis currently suggests a “sell” rating, while analyst sentiment indicates a “buy” rating. With a price target of $382.39. This represents a potential upside of 8.7%.

Key financial figures for FedEx include an earnings per share (EPS) of $18.24 and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.4x. Additionally, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 37.6%, underlining its profitability and efficiency in operations.

FedEx Financial Performance Overview

FedEx has experienced growth in its total annual revenue over recent years, with figures rising from $83.9 billion in 2021 to $87.9 billion in 2025. However, this increase in revenue has not been matched by similar growth in profitability. Operating income declined from $7.9 billion in 2021 to $6.7 billion in 2025, and net income also decreased from $5.2 billion to $4 billion during the same period.

A closer look at gross profit growth reveals a notable shift. In 2021, gross profit growth was strong at 40.94%. However, by 2024, this figure had fallen to -1.78%, indicating a contraction, and in 2025, gross profit growth was virtually flat at just 0.05%. Despite these challenges, the company has maintained profitability. Still, it is important to note that the increase in total revenue has not translated into higher profits. This trend suggests that rising expenses are offsetting revenue gains, highlighting an area that warrants close monitoring in the future.

News (Compiled by Gemini)

Over the last three months, FedEx has pivoted toward a massive structural breakup and AI-driven efficiency. The headline news is the planned spin-off of FedEx Freight into a separate public company (ticker: FDXF), scheduled for June 1, 2026. This move follows a strong Q2 earnings beat, with revenue reaching $23.47 billion.

Operationally, the “One FedEx” initiative is merging separate business units into a single integrated network. A major focus of their February Investor Day was the rollout of AI agents, with a goal to automate 50% of workflows by 2028. To fund these changes, FedEx implemented a 5.9% rate hike in January and continued aggressive cost-cutting, including station closures in Europe and layoffs in the U.S.

Earnings

Looking ahead to the upcoming earnings report, FedEx is expected to deliver an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.11. Additionally, revenue projections for the period stand at $23.48 billion. These forecasts will be closely watched by investors and analysts, as they offer insights into the company’s operational performance and financial health for the quarter.

Personally, there is an expectation about how FedEx can benefit from the restructuring and pivot. There are efforts, but these do not guarantee success. Let us monitor the stock for now, even though it seems relatively affordable.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (16Mar2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is currently showing a downtrend. This momentum indicator, which tracks the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price, signals that bearish sentiment is prevailing in the market for the time being.

Chaikin Money Flow

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.19, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. A positive CMF value suggests accumulation, meaning investors are still showing interest in buying, which can sometimes act as a counterbalance to technical weakness in other indicators.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has moved well below the 50-day moving average (MA50) while remaining above the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bearish shift in the short term, as the breach below the MA50 is generally considered a negative signal. However, with prices still above the MA200, the longer-term trend retains a bullish bias. Notably, the MA50 line has begun to slope downward for the first time in recent months, raising the possibility of a “death cross” forming—a bearish technical pattern where the MA50 crosses below the MA200. This development reinforces the view of a weakening short-term outlook.

Exponential Moving Averages

Further confirmation of bearish sentiment comes from the exponential moving average (EMA) lines, which are also trending downward. This reinforces the expectation of continued pressure on the index in the near future.

Other Technical Analysis

A review of the technical analysis for the S&P 500 reveals a clear imbalance among the indicators. Out of the total set, only two technical indicators are suggesting a “buy” rating, while nineteen are projecting a “sell” rating. This overwhelming majority of bearish signals leads to a “Strong Sell” rating overall, emphasising significant negative sentiment from a technical perspective.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The CNN Fear & Greed Index has recently entered the extreme fear zone, registering a score of 20. This development accurately mirrors the prevailing market sentiment, highlighting heightened investor anxiety and apprehension.

Weekly Outlook

Considering the above, the overall technical picture points towards a bearish outlook for the S&P 500 in the coming week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (16Mar2026)

They know things that are not available in the public domain. It may not always be selling for a bad reason. Sometimes, they need the money. Sometimes, they know that it is time to get out. Let us do our due diligence.

Strategic escalation unfolding. Senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti confirms Yemen is aligning militarily with Iran and preparing to declare "Hour Zero" The next move may be the closure of Bab al-Mandab. If that happens, the Red Sea becomes a choke point under fire, Saudi oil exports stop abruptly, and global trade faces another severe shock. - X user Richard

Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warns that current market conditions are beginning to resemble the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis, citing rising oil prices and growing risks in private credit.

The Dubai Real Estate Index has crashed 32% since the Iran war started. - The Rand Group

Several Asian nations are hit hardest by the Hormuz disruptions & LNG/oil supply crunch. Japan & South Korea: Major LNG importers for electricity; facing price spikes & potential shortages. India & Pakistan: High Qatar reliance; risk of industrial rationing, reduced demand. Europe: Italy & Belgium most exposed to Qatari LNG cuts. Global oil >$100/bbl ripples to all importers. This does spotlight supply chain fragility—redrawing trade ties (more US/Aus LNG, nuclear ramps, renewables) is underway, like musical chairs amid rerouting. - Grok

THE ENTIRE CHIP INDUSTRY IS ABOUT TO SHUT DOWN AND NOBODY IS PANICKING YET. No helium. No semiconductors. No phones. No AI. No future. Samsung and SK Hynix just went on HIGH ALERT. Ships carrying helium have stopped moving through the Gulf. - X user Dr JiHoon Park

My Investing Muse

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

Americans are leaving the U.S. in record numbers, drawn by a quality of life made easily affordable by the U.S.’s enviable salaries. - WSJ

• Meta layoffs could reportedly impact around 16,000 employees - MacroEdge

• Amazon made 2,847 engineers spend 8 months documenting every code pattern, every debugging workflow, every optimisation trick they'd learned over the years. Then fed it all to AI. Then, they fired them. No one saw it coming. The entire thing was disguised as something every senior engineer already does. Knowledge transfer. Best practices. Internal documentation. They were writing their own replacement manual. And the same playbook is running at every major tech company right now. - X user Srishti

• TotalEnergies: production shutting down in Qatar, Iraq, and the UAE offshore - MacroEdge

• Volkswagen Is Cutting 50,000 jobs, and it's a wake-up call for the Entire Auto Industry

• ALL HSBC BRANCHES CLOSED IN QATAR UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE TO ENSURE SAFETY OF CUSTOMERS AND STAFF - TEXT MESSAGE TO CUSTOMERS - X user Walter Bloomberg

• 75% of job openings in finance are gone. AI is eating finance first. - X user Peter St Onge PhD.

The number of Americans unemployed for 27 weeks or more has DOUBLED since Dec 2022, and hit 1.97 million in February, the highest in 4 years. In the past, such a level has only been seen during or after economic recessions. Furthermore, the share of Americans unemployed for over 27 weeks hit 26%, the highest since February 2022. This exceeds every peak seen in all recessions except for the Great Financial Crisis and the 2020 Crisis. Long-term unemployment is at a crisis level. - X user Global Markets Investor

Unemployment and the Impact of Artificial Intelligence

Regarding unemployment, several concerns arise beyond a weakening economy and diminished optimism for the months ahead, partly due to the ongoing conflict. The entropic leadership has flagged genuine worries about artificial intelligence potentially taking over a substantial portion of entry-level white-collar jobs. However, Amazon has pointed out that not all AI agent deployments or applications will succeed. There have been various reports addressing issues such as AI-driven blackmail, misinformation, and defensive behaviour when AI systems are threatened. Notably, there is a growing trend of evidence showcasing hallucination and falsehoods in AI models, which further complicates the outlook for employment and technology integration.

Is Private Credit the next Subprime?

John Mearsheimer: “There’s no question a nuclear-armed Iran would bring stability to the region. If Iran had a nuclear deterrent, there’s no way the US or Israel would be threatening to attack Iran right now.”

BlackRock (HLEND, $26B): 9.3% (~$1.2B) requested Q1, paid 5% ($620M), ~$580M denied/deferred. Cliffwater ($33B): 14% requested, paid 7%, 7% denied. Blackstone (BCRED): ~7.9% (~$3.8B) requested, all met (cap raised to 7% + $400M firm/exec injection). Morgan Stanley (~$8B fund): ~11% requested, paid 5% ($169M), ~6% denied. JP Morgan: No fund redemptions limited; they restricted lending to some private credit borrowers after markdowns. - (Bloomberg/Reuters, Mar 6-12 2026)

Private Credit Sector Concerns

News surrounding the private credit industry has raised concerns, given its multi-trillion dollar scale and involvement of major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, BlackRock, and Blackstone. The sector’s lack of transparency regarding credit delinquency and risk, compared to traditional banking structures, poses additional challenges. Ongoing monitoring of developments in private credit is warranted, as its opacity could lead to unforeseen financial risks.

Middle East Conflict and Inflationary Pressures

The ongoing war in the Middle East shows no sign of de-escalation in the coming week, given the firm positions taken by the involved nations. Recent news highlights not only the tragic collateral damage, including loss of lives and livelihoods, but also points to the potential for greater inflationary pressures worldwide. The conflict is expected to impact oil and gas supply chains, leading to rising energy costs. This effect is likely to ripple through other industries, such as semiconductors, since helium—a critical element for chip manufacturing—is sourced from the affected region. Furthermore, agriculture faces significant risk, as approximately 30% of global fertiliser production comes from this area. Reports indicate that American farmers are already experiencing fertiliser price increases of over 70%, underscoring the broad economic consequences.

My Final Thoughts

Market Opportunities and Strategic Caution

Despite the various risks and weaknesses, there remain opportunities to generate returns in the market. It is important to recognise that sometimes abstaining from trading can be the most prudent decision. In the upcoming week, attention should be paid to supply chain business earnings, beginning with FedEx, since logistics play a vital role in sustaining the broader economy.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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