To The Moon

Checking today's option flows — another wave of massive weekly put sales across chips:

$AMD 20260227 192.5 PUT$  — 70k opened
$AVGO 20260227 285.0 PUT$  — 20k opened
$ORCL 20260227 131.0 PUT$  — 15k opened
$SMH 20260227 390.0 PUT$  — 13k opened
$TSM 20260227 360.0 PUT$  — 13k opened

This has the same vibe as pre-holiday put sales back in Jan. But here's the twist: this time delta is below 0.08 — way lower than the 0.13–0.18 range from before.

Dig deeper and one number jumps out: IV on these puts is literally 2× realized vol.

Why? NVDA reports after market close today. That's why NVDA itself is missing from the list. The whale skipped NVDA this time — smart.

This earnings event is now pricing in more risk than CPI, NFP, or FOMC. Wild.

The picks here (ORCL aside) offer solid yield. If you're looking to mirror, selling these puts is far from dumb money.

$NVDA$
Q4 will crush. The real focus: 2027 guidance. With off-exchange AI app momentum picking up, compute demand may be underpriced again — that’s why calls are creeping above 200.
Bears are still clinging to 50 and 85 strikes. Reminds me of last year. But earnings alone won’t crater NVDA. Selling puts is fine. Watch the Trump macro noise.

$AMD$
The whale didn't stop at this week's 192.5 puts $AMD 20260227 192.5 PUT$ .
Also opened:
$AMD 20260227 187.5 PUT$ 
$AMD 20260306 192.5 PUT$ 
$AMD 20260306 187.5 PUT$ 

$CRWV$
AI demand lifts all boats — but CRWV’s debt load still spooks the street. A large sell call order hit the 120 strike pre-earnings $CRWV 20260320 120.0 CALL$ .
Given how NBIS traded post-earnings, this setup makes sense. Probably gaps down, then recovers.
But I'd rather sell the put here $CRWV 20260227 80.0 PUT$ .
Also saw 20k of $CRWV 20260417 130.0 CALL$  — unclear direction.

$INTC$
$INTC 20260417 50.0 CALL$  — 48k newly opened, skewed to buy-side.
Intel’s trade is still brutally simple. MAGA name. Sell puts and chill $INTC 20260306 43.0 PUT$ .