Nvidia Earnings: Valuation at 5-Year Low! Can Nvidia Break "Earnings Curse"?
Tomorrow after the close, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ will report earnings.
On one side, Wall Street’s ever-rising expectations; on the other, macro geopolitical tensions, renewed tariff noise tied to Trump, and growing market anxiety over whether AI spending can stay this hot into 2027.
1. Earnings Expectations: Good News May No Longer Be Enough
Current consensus puts Q4 revenue around $57 billion, with data center expectations the most aggressive — analysts have lifted forecasts from about $52.7B six months ago to roughly $60.1B now.
Recently, even when Nvidia beats expectations, the stock hasn’t reacted strongly. Once “surprise” becomes standard, marginal impact declines. Options pricing currently implies about a ~6% move this week — in either direction.
2. Valuation Debate: Bargain or Value Trap?
Nvidia’s forward P/E is now below 24x — not only below its 5-year average (~38x) but close to the lowest level in five years.
For a stock once widely labeled “expensive,” it now arguably looks relatively cheap among mega-cap tech. If tomorrow’s guidance is solid, this valuation compression could become the trigger for fresh buying.
3. The “2027 Anxiety”: Is the Moat Still Intact?
Market concerns are focused on two main questions:
1. Can Big Tech Keep Spending? Microsoft, Google, and other hyperscalers are investing aggressively in 2026, but their cash flow outlook for 2027 looks less certain.
2. Beyond $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, major tech players are developing in-house inference chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia. Current stock weakness partly reflects pricing in this potential competition risk.
But the good news is Nvidia has been trading in low range.
More than revenue numbers, we should watch how Jensen Huang frames the post-Blackwell roadmap. He needs hard data showing that even with in-house chips, Nvidia maintains dominance in AI inference.
If Jensen successfully reinforces the “inference leadership” narrative — combined with today’s compressed valuation — Nvidia could have room to restart its uptrend.
Is Tomorrow Nvidia’s Breakthrough Moment or a Trial by Fire?
With NVDA trading around $190, where do you think the stock goes?
A. Bullish Breakout — Toward $200
Blackwell shipments exceed expectations, Jensen silences doubters with strong dominance data, and the second leg of the AI bull market begins.
B. Sell-the-News Pullback — Toward $180
Solid earnings, but enthusiasm fades amid macro risks and profit-taking; institutions lock in gains and the stock searches for near-term support.
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The “2027 anxiety” is real, especially with hyperscaler capex questions & competition from AMD. Still, Nvidia’s ecosystem and inference leadership aren’t easily replaced. If Blackwell shipments and guidance are strong, sentiment can shift quickly. Jensen’s tone on the post-Blackwell roadmap will matter just as much as the numbers.
I’m picking A — Bullish Breakout. With valuation compressed, solid execution could reignite momentum toward the $180–$200 range. Risk-reward, in my view, now favors upside surprise over disappointment.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
While the long-term outlook remains overwhelmingly bullish with a path to $200+ driven by Blackwell, the short-term risk of a Sell-the-News pullback to $180 is high if the earnings report doesn't provide a massive "beat and raise" that overcomes the current mechanical market pressures.
为什么？“看不见的”需求：当空头谈论资本支出疲劳时，Meta、微软和谷歌目前正在进行一场人工智能竞赛，不购买Blackwell芯片的成本远远高于芯片本身的价格。
由于超出预期现在是基线，方向将由指导决定，而不仅仅是结果。
如果黄仁勋确认Blackwell Ultra的出货量超过了已经巨大的需求，人工智能牛市的第二阶段就开始了。
华尔街预计下一季度营收为711亿美元。如果NVIDIA的股价达到740亿美元以上，该股可能会突破195美元的阻力位并创下历史新高。
我期待今天英伟达的烟花。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
A.Bullish breakout