$140–$160 is the highest-probability outcome.
Why:
The market is already pricing a large move. A clean beat on revenue and EPS is likely, but to push above $160, Palantir needs clearly upgraded 2026 guidance and strong commentary on US commercial AI momentum. A “beat but guide inline” outcome usually caps upside. Below $140 only comes into play if guidance disappoints or macro risk-off intensifies.
Will Palantir stage a comeback?
Yes, but it is more likely a grind, not a vertical move. Fundamentals remain intact and the sell-off looks positioning-driven, not thesis-breaking.
Is $200 easy to hit in 2026?
No. Possible, but not easy. It requires sustained commercial growth acceleration, expanding margins, and a supportive macro for high-multiple AI software. One earnings print alone will not get it there.
Bottom line:
Near term range-bound volatility; medium-term upside still alive if execution continues.
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