What we just saw was not a change in character. It was a stress event.
Can gold and silver rebuild momentum?
Yes, but not in a straight line. The $400–$500 flush looks like forced deleveraging into thin liquidity rather than a fundamental rejection of the bull case. When one-minute bars move $100, price is being driven by positioning and margin, not macro reassessment. If the US dollar stabilises and real yields stop rising, gold can re-base relatively quickly. Silver will remain the more volatile leg, but that cuts both ways on rebounds.
Sell or add?
That depends on time horizon and positioning.
• Long-term holders: I would not sell into panic. The macro pillars remain intact.
• Traders or leveraged exposure: Risk reduction makes sense. Volatility like this usually demands consolidation.
• Incremental adds: Reasonable only in tranches, after volatility compresses and liquidity normalises. Catching the first bounce is rarely optimal.
Is the bull still here?
Yes, but it is transitioning from momentum to digestion. Central bank demand, fiscal dominance concerns, and geopolitical hedging have not disappeared in 48 hours. What likely has ended is the one-way, low-volatility ascent.
Base case: a choppy range, sharp counter-trend rallies, then continuation later in the year once positioning resets. The bull market is bruised, not broken.
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