Trump Strikes Again! Have You Gotten On the Resource Stocks Board?

$USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ surged yesterday. The U.S. government is set to acquire a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth, backed by a total funding package of around $1.6 billion (federal funding + loans) to accelerate the buildout of domestic rare earth mining and magnet production capacity.

This would mark the largest single U.S. government investment in critical minerals under the Trump administration so far.

1. Four Trump Deals in One Year! And the Market Went Wild

In the past year, Trump-backed deals have repeatedly sent U.S. stocks flying:

In 1Y performance, the stocks have rallied near or more than 100%.

2. What Exactly Is This Resource-Stock Rally Trading?

1. Policy Funding = Certainty. Example: $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$+ U.S. Department of Defense

DoD will purchase $400M of convertible preferred shares, plus warrants. Reuters reported the effective stake could reach around 15%

2. A “Repricing” of Financing Costs and Refinancing Risk. Example: $Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$

The government receives 5% equity via warrants, and also gains an additional 5% interest in the Thacker Pass JV project. This structure was disclosed in both DOE statements and company filings

3. Government Endorsement = Liquidity + Attention

Once a policy signal lands, the market typically reacts in this sequence: volume + attention surge first → valuation framework gets rerated → fundamentals slowly catch up later

3. What Should You Buy? Key Watchlist Summary

  1. $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ : A $1.6B funding package to build out rare earth mining in Texas and magnet production capacity in Oklahoma. The U.S. government participates through equity ownership + additional purchase rights.

  2. $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ : $400M DoD convertible preferred + warrants. The policy goal is clear: U.S. independence in rare earth magnets. Reuters estimates ~15% effective stake.

  3. $Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$ : DOE takes 5% equity via warrants, plus an additional 5% interest in the Thacker Pass JV — a textbook “loan structure + equity protection” combo.

  4. $Trilogy Metals(TMQ)$ : Reuters reported a U.S. government investment of around $35.6M for roughly a 10% stake, plus potential warrant upside of about 7.5%.

  5. $CRITICAL METALS CORPORATION(CRML)$ : Partnered with U.S. critical minerals company GreenMet to develop Greenland’s southern Tanbreez project, focused on heavy rare earth extraction.

  6. $Energy Fuels(UUUU)$: A leading U.S.-based critical minerals company that has successfully expanded from traditional uranium mining into rare earth elements (REE) and heavy mineral sands (HMS).

High-Beta “Sentiment Plays” in the Same Theme

Rare Earth / Critical Minerals: AREC NB TMRC TMC UAMY

Lithium: SQM RIO SGML SLI ATLX

Uranium / Nuclear Fuel Chain: LEU CCJ UEC DNN NXE

Community Poll

Which theme do you think becomes the next major market storyline?

Rare earths + magnets (USAR / MP)

Domestic lithium supply chain (LAC / Thacker Pass)

Uranium + nuclear fuel (LEU / CCJ / UEC)

High-beta critical minerals small caps (UUUU / AREC / NB, etc.)

Would you join the resource stock trade?

Will Trump trade last for another 4 year term?

Leave your comments to win tiger coins~

# $12B Project Vault in Rare Earth: Is USAR the Real Winner?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Report

Comment23

  • Top
  • Latest
  • koolgal
    ·01-28
    🌟🌟一些投资者谈论特朗普贸易将再持续4年,特别是在能源、放松管制和国内生产方面。然而,特朗普交易是一种市场叙事,而不是预测。这种叙述目前集中在资源大趋势上。

    事实是,它们是资源有限的信号。未来4年的重点将是锂、铀、关键矿物和核燃料。

    在4大资源趋势中,我认为核燃料是最重要的。它为人工智能革命提供了动力,而铀是核燃料的核心。

    Centrus能源 $Centrus Energy Corp.(LEU)$ 是核燃料循环的安静看门人。它是唯一一家能够生产高含量低浓缩铀的美国公司,这是下一代反应堆所需的先进燃料。这使得Centrus Energy成为铀和核燃料之间的桥梁。

    Centrus Energy激动人心的时刻即将到来。🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG

    Reply
    Report
  • 北极篂
    ·01-30
    最后一个关键问题:特朗普交易会持续 4 年吗?我认为人可能变,但方向不会变。关键矿产、能源安全,已经是跨党派共识。只是市场接下来会更挑剔——不是“有没有政策”,而是“你能不能把政策变成产能”。这,才是下一阶段真正的分水岭。
    Reply
    Report
  • 北极篂
    ·01-30
    至於高貝塔小盤資源股,短期彈性最大,但也最容易在政策情緒退潮時被腰斬,只適合交易,不適合信仰。
    Reply
    Report
  • 北极篂
    ·01-30
    所以你该买什么?我个人更偏向两类:
    第一类,是像 MP、UUUU 这种已经有产量或多元业务支撑的公司,政策是增量,不是救命稻草;
    第二类,是 LAC 这种融资结构被政府深度“兜底”的项目,至少最危险的阶段已经过去。
    Reply
    Report
  • 北极篂
    ·01-30
    但这类反弹交易,并不等于基本面立刻变好。以 USAR 为例,1.6B 的融资方案确实解决了“钱从哪来”的问题,却并没有解决“多久赚钱”的问题。建矿、建磁体产能,本身就是一个跨周期工程,现金流兑现往往在政策热度之后。现在买入,更像是在买政策确定性 + 流动性溢价,而不是当期业绩。
    Reply
    Report
  • 北极篂
    ·01-30
    这些所谓的“特朗普交易”,本质上都是同一套逻辑:政策资金进场,把原本高融资风险、长周期的资源项目,重新定价为“国家级工程”。一旦政府成为股东或准股东,破产风险、再融资风险立刻下降,市场愿意给更高估值溢价,这也是为什么 MP、LAC、TMQ 这类股票能在短期内走出翻倍行情。
    Reply
    Report
  • L.Lim
    ·01-28
    我认为不会出现新的焦点,头条新闻仍将徘徊在稀土和磁体上,原因很简单,因为中国牢牢控制,其他所有人都不容易在短期甚至中期增产。
    即使发现有稀土浓度较高的地点,所需的专业知识也是一个挑战。取回它们的行为和不造成不利的环境问题都是需要平衡的重要事情。
    Reply
    Report
  • The Future of "Trump Trade" PoliciesPolicy Continuity: Tariffs were a central pillar of the 2024 campaign and are a continuation of measures initiated during his first term. The administration is expected to find ways to impose tariffs regardless of potential legal challenges.
    Potential Impacts:
    Increased Tariffs: Plans include a potential baseline 10% tariff on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods. This could disrupt supply chains and pressure international businesses.
    Inflationary Pressure: The combination of demand-side fiscal stimulus and supply-side shocks from tariffs is expected to keep inflation elevated.
    Sector-Specific Effects: The energy sector, while benefiting from general cyclical trends, could face downside risks for some commodities if widespread retaliatory tariffs are implemented. Domestically focused small-cap stocks are anticipated to benefit from a focus on reshoring and domestic growth.
    Reply
    Report
  • Alubin
    ·01-28
    不要以爲我會加入資源股交易,它越來越不是投資,更多的是投機。此外,我不相信特朗普會再連任4年。
    Reply
    Report
  • Chrishust
    ·01-28
    一、哪个题材是下一个市场故事情节:稀土和磁体
    2.我会加入资源股交易吗是$BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$
    3.特朗普贸易会再持续4年吗:特朗普很可能赢得下一届中期选举,再当4年总统
    Reply
    Report
  • Ragz
    ·01-28
    US companies involved in rare earth production get a big boost as the US government plans hugh investments. Once the euphoria wears off, volatility sets in until proper investment are set in place.
    Reply
    Report
  • Cadi Poon
    ·01-27
    这种资源股反弹交易到底是什么?
    1、政策性资金=确定性。示例:$MP材料公司(MP)$+美国。国防部

    国防部将采购4亿美元可转换优先股,更多搜查令。路透社报道称,有效股份可能达到15%

    2.融资成本和再融资风险的“重新定价”。示例:$美洲锂业公司(LAC)$

    政府通过认股权证获得5%的股权,并获得Thacker Pass合资项目额外5%的权益。这种结构在能源部声明和公司文件中都有披露

    Reply
    Report
  • TimothyX
    ·01-27
    $美國稀土公司(USAR)$昨天飆升。美國政府將獲得一個持有美國稀土10%股權,由總額約爲16億美元(聯邦資金+貸款)加速建設國內稀土開採及磁體產能.

    這將標誌着美國政府對關鍵礦產的最大單筆投資迄今爲止在特朗普政府的領導下。

    Reply
    Report
  • Jumping in now! Trump trade could ride out the term if polls hold. [看涨]
    Reply
    Report
  • Yeah, I'm in! Trump's moves could last years. [开心]
    Reply
    Report
  • highhand
    ·01-27
    I think I better not. no more cash to buy. sit quietly and wait for my holdings to go up. patience is a virtue
    Reply
    Report
  • ECLC
    ·01-28
    没有跟随“超级赌注”。认为资源股交易突然飙升的风险更高。
    Reply
    Report
  • It's a scam. I bought near the peak and it fell more than 50% in a month
    Reply
    Report
  • AliceSam
    ·01-28
    还没有加入
    Reply
    Report
  • LucasOng
    ·01-28
    多元化,进入一些稀土!
    Reply
    Report