To The Moon

It’s 2026, so it’s time to have some fun with expectations for the year.

Most predictions I’ve seen a pretty boring, like “stocks will go up ~9%” or “ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ will outperform.”

I think this is going to be a crazier year than most in the market think. We’re in the calm before the storm.

Expect the unexpected!

#1: OpenAI Will “Collapse”

This may sound provocative at first, but I don’t think it’s all that far-fetched.

The Information reported in September that OpenAI expects to burn $131 billion through 2029 and then magically become profitable.

There’s just one problem with that plan…Google $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ !

Google has clearly gained momentum with users and developers, and Alphabet has the cash to starve OpenAI’s ecosystem of funding.

We’re already seeing signs that the market is demanding more from the companies financing OpenAI’s buildout. They’ll continue building hundreds of billions in data centers as long as they can raise the funding to do so. But falling stock prices and rising debt costs will make that buildout harder, as I highlighted in The AI Confidence Game.

Building a money-losing game on confidence works until cracks start to show…and they’re showing!

Google is taking market share in AI chatbots.

Google has an ad business to monetize Gemini when it wants to.

Google has distribution advantages.

And maybe most importantly, Google has the money to continue investing in frontier models without worrying about the next funding round.

OpenAI doesn’t have that privilege. It needs to raise money.

OpenAI needs data center suppliers to keep raising money.

If OpenAI and its partners don’t have access to limitless piles of capital, the business model collapses on itself!

I’ve been skeptical of OpenAI from the beginning because I don’t see the giant value add that others do, and I don’t see how OpenAI can build a profitable business model with the costs involved in developing more advanced AI models.

In 2026, that reality will become apparent, and OpenAI will collapse. What will that look like? The company will still have value, but it may have to cut back plans for developing models or give up on parts of its growth ambitions. A sale isn’t out of the question either (even if it’s dumping shares on the public in an IPO).

Going from leader to laggard can happen quickly. Just ask Perplexity.

#2: The Economy Will Crack, There Will Be a Shallow Recession, and We’ll Get a Bear Market

I’m naturally a contrarian as an investor, and when I see headlines like this from Bloomberg, I get worried.

The last time I remember a headline like that, it was this one, also from Bloomberg, on October 17, 2022.

That was almost the exact bottom of the market, and (surprise) there was no recession.

Today, I think the economy and markets look very different. Optimism is priced in, and the underlying economy doesn’t look very strong.

Look at the unemployment rate and where recessions typically happen. The recession doesn’t start when unemployment hits 7%, the recession usually starts 6-12 months after unemployment bottoms and job losses start to tick up. We’re two and a half years past the low in unemployment, but the last two years of AI investment, deportations (reducing the denominator in the unemployment rate), and high markets have delayed a full-blown recession.

I think that changes in 2026. Layoffs are up. If AI investment proves not to be the massive productivity unlock investors think it is, we may see the downward spiral begin.

If the market sees weakness in AI and the economy, we will likely have a pullback from all-time highs. I don’t know if it’ll be 20% or 30%, but I could see the market struggling this year, returning multiples to more historic norms.

I’m not going to stop investing, but this is why I’m being more cautious in what I buy.

#3: The Blockchain Will Go Mainstream — And You Won’t Even Notice

Coinbase was one of the first stocks I covered on Asymmetric Investing, and it’s been a huge winner for investors over the last few years.

The thesis wasn’t that Coinbase $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ would make more money on crypto trading; it was that Coinbase would build the infrastructure behind companies building on the blockchain. We’re seeing exactly that in their results, and the “System Update” a few weeks ago laid out an even bigger vision.

And Coinbase isn’t the only one

• Stripe has integrated stablecoin payments

• SoFi $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ and Figure Technology $Figure Technology Solutions(FIGR)$ have launched their own stablecoins

• Visa $Visa(V)$ and Shopify $Shopify(SHOP)$ have integrated stablecoin settlement

Those are just a few of the developments from companies you probably know, and there’s a lot more going on under the hood in the crypto world.

I think this year we’ll see small changes like digital-first banks like SoFi and Robinhood $Robinhood(HOOD)$ enable stablecoins and direct stablecoin payments on Shopify, with Stripe, and even with Toast. It makes sense for a digital solution to answer a digital problem.

I think the driver of adoption will be the fees that we’re starting to see pop up for paying with credit cards. Merchants and business owners no longer want to eat the ~3% fee for taking cards, and they’re charging for the privilege of using a card. If accepting stablecoins is ~1% and settlement is instant (instead of a few days with credit cards), it may be worth offering a no-fee option for paying with stablecoins.

The integration would be simple with Apple Pay, Google Pay, a QR code, or other tap options easily enabled. I think this new reality of more efficient payments on the blockchain will gain adoption rapidly in 2026, and there will be no looking back.

#4: Autonomy Will Become Table Stakes

We’ve heard a lot of talk about autonomous driving over the last decade. Most of that has been unmet promises (ahem, Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , but there’s been very real progress taking place under the radar.

Waymo is now completing ~450,000 rides per week and is validating performance in cities like Minneapolis, Seattle, and London, which is a step up from the warm climates it’s already operating in. By the end of the year, we could see Waymo commercially operating in more than 24 cities with growing scale in each.

And Waymo isn’t the only one in autonomy. Zoox is operating commercially in Las Vegas, May Mobility is operating in Georgia, and VW/Mobileye are testing in Austin, with LA expected in 2026.

There are also advancements coming from GM (Super Cruise), Rivian, Mercedes-Benz, and Lucid, to name a few.

I think 2026 will become critically important for companies in autonomy. Waymo is expanding fully autonomous ride-sharing, and Uber and Lyft are working with anyone who has a plan to add autonomous supply.

OEMs will have to answer whether that’s more advanced autonomy like Super Cruise or Rivian’s autonomy product, but everyone will have some kind of answer by the end of the year. And more drivers will have “eyes-off” capabilities in their vehicles starting this year.

Expect this to be a year when autonomy goes mainstream, and that means it’s table stakes for OEMs.

A decade from now, autonomous features will be as common as airbags and the alarm when your seat belt isn’t buckled.

#5: IPOs Will be Plentiful — And Disappointing

2021 was a phenomenal year for IPOs…and that was a disaster for investors.

I think 2026 could be similar. Stocks are at highs, and companies without a real business model are salivating at the opportunity to access public markets. Just look at OpenAI and SpaceX potentially going public at $1 trillion+ valuations, despite losing money.

When you see VC investors talk about how important it is to get companies into public markets, remember that’s an “exit” for them.

It’s a liquidity event for an illiquid asset.

They’re selling when the public is buying.

We may see a lot of IPOs in 2026, but be careful buying them. Waiting may be the right answer, just like it was in 2021.

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