To The Moon

A “no-surprises” year is more plausible than it sounds, but not because risks disappear. It is because many shocks are now well telegraphed and largely priced.

Most likely core outcome for 2026:

U.S. equities grind to new highs, driven by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. AI capex normalises, productivity gains start to show up in margins, and markets advance in a choppy but upward fashion. This is historically the most common outcome when recessions fail to materialise.

Gold above $5,000:

Possible, but conditional. It likely requires either a renewed credibility shock to fiat currencies or a sharper geopolitical escalation. Without that, gold may consolidate at high levels rather than explode higher.

AI bubble bursting:

Unlikely in a classic dot-com sense. Valuations may compress in parts of the ecosystem, but AI is already embedded in real capex, revenue and national strategy. More rotation than rupture.

Repeated Fed reversals:

Less likely. The Fed prefers inertia once credibility is restored. Fewer moves, not more, is the base case.

“Nothing happens”:

Ironically, this may be closest to the truth. Volatility fades, narratives cool, returns become boring, and discipline matters more than hero trades.

In short, 2026 may reward patience over prediction. The most surprising outcome may indeed be that markets behave normally again.