To The Moon

A sober reading of 2026 points towards “nothing happens” being the most counterintuitive yet plausible outcome.

After years of extreme shocks, markets may enter a phase of noisy consolidation rather than dramatic regime change. Growth slows but does not collapse, inflation trends lower but remains sticky, and policy becomes reactive rather than revolutionary. This would feel underwhelming precisely because investors are conditioned to expect fireworks.

A brief assessment of the alternatives:

• AI bubble bursting

Possible, but a full collapse is unlikely. Capital may rotate and valuations compress, yet AI adoption is increasingly embedded in real productivity and capex cycles rather than pure speculation.

• Gold above $5,000

Achievable only under renewed crisis conditions such as aggressive monetary debasement or severe geopolitical escalation. Not a base case.

• U.S. equities at new highs

Very plausible, but likely incremental rather than explosive. Earnings growth and buybacks could grind indices higher without dramatic multiple expansion.

• Repeated Fed policy reversals

Less likely. The Fed has learned that credibility matters. Expect fewer pivots, more tolerance for discomfort, and slower adjustments.

In short, 2026 may not be defined by a single dominant narrative. Sideways markets, rotation beneath the surface, and frustration for both bulls and bears may be the real surprise.

History suggests the most painful outcome for investors is often boredom, not crisis.