2025 can be best understood as a year of violent repricing rather than simple trend continuation.
The sharp April sell-off in US equities acted as a reset. Positioning had become one-sided, valuations complacent, and macro uncertainty underestimated. The subsequent rebound to record highs was not driven by fresh optimism, but by resilience. Earnings held up, liquidity remained ample, and investors were repeatedly forced to re-risk into strength rather than conviction.
Gold breaking past USD 4,000 was arguably the most revealing signal of the year. It reflected not inflation panic, but deep-seated distrust. A hedge against fiscal expansion, geopolitical fragmentation, and long-term currency debasement. That gold and equities rallied together underscored a market hedging prosperity with protection.
The rise of Nvidia to a USD 5 trillion market capitalisation marked the psychological peak of the AI narrative. Not because AI failed, but because expectations became too linear. By year-end, capital rotation away from AI did not signal abandonment. It signalled saturation. AI shifted from discovery to digestion, from story to balance sheet.
In hindsight, 2025 was not about bubbles bursting or cycles ending. It was about belief being stress-tested. The winners were not those who chased narratives, but those who managed exposure, respected valuation, and accepted that even transformational technologies move in uneven phases.
If 2024 was about acceleration, 2025 was about realism.
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