To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

Wall Street's on the edge of chaos as quadruple witching unleashes its fury today, December 19, 2025, with a record $5 trillion in S&P 500 options expiring alongside $880 billion tied to single stocks – a volatility vortex that's already ramping volumes 100% above normal and amplifying swings like a market earthquake. 🌪️ This third-Friday frenzy of stock options, index options, stock futures, and index futures expiring together hits near quarter-end, turning the session into a high-stakes showdown where gamma squeezes and dealer hedging could rocket or wreck the tape. Add the Bank of Japan's bombshell 25bps hike to 0.75% – the highest in 30 years and first in 11 months – and you've got a global ripple ready to test US stocks hard. Yen strengthened 2% to send USD/JPY tumbling to 149, unwinding carry trades that fueled bulls for years and sparking risk-off flows that could drag equities lower. 😤

Can the bull hold 6,800? Current S&P 500 levels hover around 6,774.76 from yesterday's close, with futures dipping 0.3% pre-market amid BoJ fallout – that 6,800 support's a fortress from November lows, but a break could flush to 6,700 on expiry chaos. Historical quadruple witching days see average +0.5% gains on S&P, with 60% closing green as gamma pins prices, but BoJ's hike adds a wildcard punch. If dealer hedging squeezes shorts, we could snap back for a 1% pop; but if carry unwind intensifies, down 0.5-1% tests the floor. 🎢

BoJ's impact on US stocks? Massive but sneaky – the hike compresses US-Japan yield spreads, reversing $1T+ in carry trades that pumped liquidity into Nasdaq and growth plays. Yen surges crush exporters but hit US assets harder through capital drains, potentially shaving 0.5-1% off S&P today as risk aversion spikes VIX to 25. Emerging markets like India's Nifty dipped 0.5% on flows back to Tokyo, while gold shined up 1% to $4,329 as haven bids flood in. Crypto felt the burn too, Bitcoin testing $85K support on unwind pressure. But QT's $1T lava buffers downside, and if PCE tomorrow cools to 2.3% core, cut odds rebound to 90% for a quick reversal. 🌏🩸

Santa rally assured tonight? December's +0.8% historical glow is flickering – thin volumes amplify expiry madness, but with no hot data surprises and AI beats like Micron's 7% after-hours pop on $9.05B rev crush (up 18%), sentiment could flip bullish for a green close. BoJ's hike adds hawkish heat, pausing global easing and capping upside at 6,900 if carry chaos escalates. Still, 85% hit rate for strong finishes post-low starts hints Santa squeezes through – risk assets rise if gamma wins the day. 🎄💪

BoJ Hike Ripple Effects on US Stocks Table 😤📊

BoJ's 0.75% punch echoes January's hike that tanked BTC 30% – carry reversals add edge, but S&P's 6,774 close holds 6,800 support for now. If gamma hedging pins prices higher, green close assured; but if unwind intensifies, deeper pullback to 6,700 looms. Santa rally hangs by a thread – risk assets rebound if PCE cools, but BoJ chaos adds down drag. 😤🍀

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