To The Moon

Here is a structured view on the drivers of gold prices over the next 12 months, the recent strength in gold and silver, and whether silver might continue to outperform or gold could reach US$5,000 per ounce in 2026.

Primary Drivers for Gold Prices

1. Safe-haven demand and global risk sentiment

Gold remains sensitive to geopolitical tension, macroeconomic uncertainty, and stock market stress. Heightened risk aversion tends to shift capital into bullion. Central banks and institutions have been significant buyers, supporting prices. 

2. Monetary policy expectations

Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker US dollar reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Softer yields on bonds make non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive, reinforcing its appeal as a hedge against monetary easing. 

3. Central bank reserves and institutional allocation

Emerging market central banks have been increasing gold holdings. Underinvestment by institutional and private investors could provide further upside if allocations rise. 

4. Dollar and bond yields

A persistent weaker US dollar and low real yields typically support precious metals prices. Conversely, a stronger dollar or higher yields would weigh on demand. 

5. Economic growth and inflation dynamics

If global growth deteriorates with persistent inflation, gold’s role as a store of value is reinforced. On the other hand, a stronger growth outlook, higher real yields, or reduced fears of recession could dampen demand. This aligns with scenarios like ANZ’s where different macro regimes push gold toward either US$5,000 or US$3,500. 

Interpretation of Recent Strength in Gold and Silver

Gold

Gold’s rally toward ~US$4,350 reflects both safe-haven buying and positioning around expectations of easier monetary policy and weaker dollar conditions. Market commentary notes this is one of the strongest annual performances on record. 

Silver

Silver has performed even more sharply, doubling in price this year and surpassing $60/oz, driven by a mix of:

Safe-haven and investment demand

Industrial use growth, particularly in clean energy and technology sectors

Tight supply conditions and physical market shortages. 

Silver’s dual role as both an investment and industrial metal explains why its price has been more volatile and, in percentage terms, stronger than gold. Silver has historically been more sensitive to industrial demand and supply deficits than gold. 

Will Silver Continue to Outperform Gold?

Short to medium term

Silver may continue to outperform if industrial demand remains robust and supply deficits persist.

A breakdown in the gold-to-silver ratio and strong momentum technicals support the case for further silver gains if investor risk appetite remains elevated. 

Risks to silver’s outperformance

Silver’s volatility and smaller market size mean prices can swing sharply.

Should safe-haven flows dominate without matching industrial demand growth, gold could outperform. 

In general, silver’s outperformance is not guaranteed; it depends on the balance between its industrial demand drivers and broader macroeconomic conditions.

Assessment: Could Gold Reach US$5,000 in 2026?

Bullish scenario

Many major banks and analysts have forecasts for gold reaching near or beyond US$5,000 by 2026 under conditions of continued central bank buying, elevated geopolitical risk, and further monetary easing. Some projections even extend beyond that level later in the decade. 

Moderation risk

Not all forecasts are uniformly bullish. Some research suggests that if the monetary easing cycle loses momentum, the rally could moderate or retrace. Sustained strong global growth and a firmer dollar would also contradict a simple path to US$5,000. 

Probability view

Reaching US$5,000 is plausible but would likely require a continuation of the risk-off environment, further weakening in the dollar, additional rate cuts, or new systemic shocks. If global growth surprises to the upside and real yields rise, gold might struggle to sustain a trend that far above current levels.

Summary

Gold’s next 12 months will be shaped by monetary policy expectations, currency and yield dynamics, central bank behaviour and geopolitical risk.

Recent strength in both metals reflects safe-haven demand combined with unique drivers for silver such as industrial demand and supply constraints.

Silver could continue to outperform gold in percentage terms if industrial and investment demand remains strong and supply remains tight.

Gold at US$5,000 in 2026 is within the realm of analyst forecasts under a bearish global economic backdrop and continued safe-haven flows. However, this is not a base case in all scenarios and depends on how macro conditions evolve.