To The Moon

Morgan Stanley calling 2026 the "robotaxi singularity moment" matches what I've been expecting for some time — the autonomous driving curve is finally steepening. As U.S. cities accelerate regulatory approvals and commercial pilots, we're entering the first real monetization phase for autonomy. For me, this is the first time the industry has both technological readiness and enough political momentum to enable scale deployment.

In terms of Tesla, I don't think the robotaxi story is fully priced in. The market has been overly focused on margins, short-term delivery softness, and macro noise, while assigning almost zero value to Tesla's autonomy optionality. If FSD V12.x continues to improve and Tesla manages to demonstrate a genuine L4 experience by 2026, then the valuation model changes entirely — from an auto manufacturer to an AI-powered mobility platform. That kind of multiple expansion simply isn't reflected in today's share price.

When comparing Tesla and Waymo, it's clear both have strengths but follow very different philosophies. Waymo's approach is geofenced, highly controlled, and arguably the safest at this stage. Tesla's approach is end-to-end AI with consumer fleet scaling, which is inherently more chaotic but also infinitely more scalable if it succeeds. I personally think scalability matters more in the long run, and Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  is structurally better positioned in that dimension.

I also agree with Morgan Stanley that a true robotaxi rollout will pressure the economics of ride-hailing companies like Uber $Uber(UBER)$   and Lyft $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$  . Autonomous fleets remove the biggest cost component — the driver — and whoever cracks autonomy first will redefine urban transport. If Tesla reaches operational robotaxi density by 2026, the competitive shock to legacy mobility platforms could be significant.

Overall, I remain more bullish on Tesla. Their vertically integrated approach, massive real-world data advantage, and aggressive software iteration give them a unique edge. 2026 could genuinely be the year when the narrative shifts from "promise" to "proof," and if Tesla delivers even a fraction of what the robotaxi vision implies, the upside for shareholders is still far from being fully recognized.

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community. 

@Tiger_comments  @TigerStars