November Recap! Can December Bring Santa Rally?
November is over! $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed down 1.51%, while $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.13%.
The S&P 500 gained 3.7% this week, marking its strongest weekly performance in six months. $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ climbed back above $90,000; and commodities rebounded in sync.
However, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ lost 12%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ lost 5.78% this month.
This November marks a divergence from the historical norm. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 1.8% in November since 1950. And in the year following a U.S. presidential election, it typically gains 1.6%.
But the good news is that selling pressure and panic in November have set the stage for potential gains in December.
How will December perform? Will the Santa Rally arrive?
Tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring can weigh on performance in the first half of December. The second half is usually stronger, with the Santa Claus Rally kicking off on Christmas Eve.
Historically, it's when the Santa Claus rally shows up, delivering an average 1.2% gain since 1964 and finishing higher 70% of the time
Goldman Sachs expects systematic strategies to shift from net selling to net buying in December, with an estimated scale of about $4.7 billion — meaning structural flows have reversed direction and could become the “second wave” driving the market upward.
How did your November perform?
Click the topic: November Recap! Can December Bring Santa Rally? to review your November — or your 2025 year-to-date results!
Do you think we’ll see a Santa Rally in December?
What’s your December trading plan — bold buying or steady holding?
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So I will keep adding to $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ $SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPYM)$ and yes, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ on sale feels like Santa left me a semiconductor little stocking gift.
Each drip of capital is a love letter to my future self - steady, patient and compounding.
The market votes loudly in the short run but I am here for the weigh in with a long term horizon.
Festive cheer, steady hands and conviction wrapped in a nice sweet bow 🎀🎀🎀🎁🎁🎁. That is my December plan. Then it is Ho Ho Ho all the way to an exciting 2026.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
How did your November perform?
Click the topic: November Recap! Can December Bring Santa Rally? to review your November — or your 2025 year-to-date results!
Do you think we’ll see a Santa Rally in December?
What’s your December trading plan — bold buying or steady holding?
I think the chances of a December Santa Rally are decent. Sentiment is reset, systematic funds are turning into net buyers & seasonality usually supports the second half of the month. As long as macro data stays stable, the setup looks constructive. Historically, when November dips, December often recovers strongly. That pattern gives me a bit more confidence this time.
My December plan is steady rather than aggressive. I’ll hold core positions, add only on meaningful dips & let year-end flows play out. If the Santa Rally comes, I’ll ride it; if not, I’m still positioned for early-2026 strength. I’m focusing on discipline & avoiding emotional trades during a typically volatile month.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
今年11月標誌着與歷史常態的背離。根據股票交易者年鑑自1950年以來，11月份標普500平均上漲1.8%。在美國總統大選後的一年，它通常會上漲1.6%。
但好消息是，11月的拋售壓力和恐慌爲12月的潛在上漲奠定了基礎。
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
A Santa rally is possible if SPX holds above key trend levels. A break below would delay the cycle, not end it.
My view: December favours disciplined dip buying, light trimming on emotional bounces, and keeping exposure in sectors with real catalysts: AI infrastructure, quantum, and selected small caps with high upside convexity.
Will Santa arrive? Probability is higher than most believe.
(2) Do you think we’ll see a Santa Rally in December?: I do, I do! Actually, more than thinking, I am Praying and hoping we will see one 🙏
(3) What’s your December trading plan — bold buying or steady holding?: A combination of both: build holdings of bluechips and trying to get rid of duds if such a opportunity strikes.
Post-Rally Indicator: A failed Santa rally often signals a weak January (and sometimes the full year), as per Hirsch's adage: "If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." Conversely, a strong one has preceded positive years ~90% of the time when combined with a positive January "trifecta."
No! We cannot make it seem like bitcoin is a normal asset type. It is absolutely different, a whole another set of rules, risk and logic, not another simple commodity, whether that was intentional or not.
2. Santa rally: while history pre 2020 showed evidence of a Santa rally, there have been substantial changes in markets this year with tariffs in the USA. Likely outcome is further losses .
3. December trading plan is put option protective put contracts on $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
標普500本週上漲3.7%，創下六個月來最強勁的單週表現.$比特幣(BTC.USD.CC)$回升至9萬美元以上；和大宗商品同步反彈。
We might see Santa Rally as a consolation for all traders.