November Recap! Can December Bring Santa Rally?
November is over! $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ closed down 1.51%, while $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.13%.
The S&P 500 gained 3.7% this week, marking its strongest weekly performance in six months. $Bitcoin(BTC.USD.CC)$ climbed back above $90,000; and commodities rebounded in sync.
However, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ lost 12%, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ lost 5.78% this month.
This November marks a divergence from the historical norm. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 1.8% in November since 1950. And in the year following a U.S. presidential election, it typically gains 1.6%.
But the good news is that selling pressure and panic in November have set the stage for potential gains in December.
How will December perform? Will the Santa Rally arrive?
Tax-loss selling and year-end portfolio restructuring can weigh on performance in the first half of December. The second half is usually stronger, with the Santa Claus Rally kicking off on Christmas Eve.
Historically, it's when the Santa Claus rally shows up, delivering an average 1.2% gain since 1964 and finishing higher 70% of the time
Goldman Sachs expects systematic strategies to shift from net selling to net buying in December, with an estimated scale of about $4.7 billion — meaning structural flows have reversed direction and could become the “second wave” driving the market upward.
How did your November perform?
Click the topic: November Recap! Can December Bring Santa Rally? to review your November — or your 2025 year-to-date results!
Do you think we’ll see a Santa Rally in December?
What’s your December trading plan — bold buying or steady holding?
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所以我會繼續添加 $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ $投資組合標普500指數ETF-SPDR(SPYM)$ 是的， $英偉達(NVDA)$ 打折感覺就像聖誕老人給我留下了一份半導體小禮物。
每一滴資本都是寫給我未來自我穩定、耐心和複利的情書。
市場在短期內會大聲投票，但我在這裏是爲了從長期角度進行權衡。
節日的歡呼，堅定的雙手和信念包裹在一個漂亮甜美的蝴蝶結中。🎀🎀🎀🎁🎁🎁這是我十二月的計劃。然後就是嗬嗬嗬一路走到激動人心的2026年。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
How did your November perform?
Click the topic: November Recap! Can December Bring Santa Rally? to review your November — or your 2025 year-to-date results!
Do you think we’ll see a Santa Rally in December?
What’s your December trading plan — bold buying or steady holding?
I think the chances of a December Santa Rally are decent. Sentiment is reset, systematic funds are turning into net buyers & seasonality usually supports the second half of the month. As long as macro data stays stable, the setup looks constructive. Historically, when November dips, December often recovers strongly. That pattern gives me a bit more confidence this time.
My December plan is steady rather than aggressive. I’ll hold core positions, add only on meaningful dips & let year-end flows play out. If the Santa Rally comes, I’ll ride it; if not, I’m still positioned for early-2026 strength. I’m focusing on discipline & avoiding emotional trades during a typically volatile month.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
今年11月标志着与历史常态的背离。根据股票交易者年鉴自1950年以来，11月份标普500平均上涨1.8%。在美国总统大选后的一年，它通常会上涨1.6%。
但好消息是，11月的抛售压力和恐慌为12月的潜在上涨奠定了基础。
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
A Santa rally is possible if SPX holds above key trend levels. A break below would delay the cycle, not end it.
My view: December favours disciplined dip buying, light trimming on emotional bounces, and keeping exposure in sectors with real catalysts: AI infrastructure, quantum, and selected small caps with high upside convexity.
Will Santa arrive? Probability is higher than most believe.
(2) Do you think we’ll see a Santa Rally in December?: I do, I do! Actually, more than thinking, I am Praying and hoping we will see one 🙏
(3) What’s your December trading plan — bold buying or steady holding?: A combination of both: build holdings of bluechips and trying to get rid of duds if such a opportunity strikes.
Post-Rally Indicator: A failed Santa rally often signals a weak January (and sometimes the full year), as per Hirsch's adage: "If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." Conversely, a strong one has preceded positive years ~90% of the time when combined with a positive January "trifecta."
没有！我们不能让比特币看起来是一种正常的资产类型。这是完全不同的，是另一套规则、风险和逻辑，而不是另一种简单的商品，不管这是不是有意的。
2. Santa rally: while history pre 2020 showed evidence of a Santa rally, there have been substantial changes in markets this year with tariffs in the USA. Likely outcome is further losses .
3. December trading plan is put option protective put contracts on $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
標普500本週上漲3.7%，創下六個月來最強勁的單週表現.$比特幣(BTC.USD.CC)$回升至9萬美元以上；和大宗商品同步反彈。
We might see Santa Rally as a consolation for all traders.