To The Moon

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $MARA Holdings(MARA)$

📊 Momentum Overview

Bitcoin’s thrust back above $91k arrived exactly as holiday liquidity thinned, and that combination produced the kind of volatility snap I pay close attention to. The move was fast, corrective, and mechanically triggered after price breached the lower weekly Bollinger band near $91.5k. Bitcoin had dropped more than two standard deviations below the weekly mean, and historically, this type of band violation has led to a mean reversion reaction roughly 62% of the time. Two prior examples of this include the 2017 October tag, which recovered 28%, and the 2021 March tag, which recovered 42%.

The recovery carried price directly into the first liquidity pocket below $93,350, but this remains a relief move until proven otherwise. Weekly RSI printed exhaustion near 28, signalling that the conditions for a reflexive bounce were in place. Price reclaiming the band midline is the first constructive cue, although the broader trajectory still depends on the reaction at the 20 and 50 week SMAs. Those define the macro regime and sit well above spot, including the 50 week SMA near $95,200 that has not been retested since mid October.

Volume dropped around 35% below the 10 day average through the holiday period, which magnifies these pivots. A meaningful mean reversion toward the weekly centre band near 100k will require volume expansion as liquidity normalises next week.

🧩 Technical Structure

Bitcoin’s weekly structure reflects a decompression after extended downside pressure. Tagging the lower Bollinger band at $91.5k was the technical trigger that reset the entire range. The mean band sits near $99,800, and if this recovery develops momentum, that is the natural destination. Short timeframe context points to the order block at 88k to 89k, which would act as a retest zone if the market slips during weekend liquidity gaps.

Four hour profiling shows bullish engulfing around $90,200, but higher highs still depend on a clean break and hold above $93,350. Bitcoin dominance also offers a useful secondary read. Dominance hit the four hour upper Bollinger band at 56.2% and stalled under the declining 20 week SMA at 57.8%. That slope usually precedes a rotation phase where Bitcoin outperformance pauses, and that can support a broader mean reversion pattern on spot.

Clearing $93,350 opens a path toward $97,800, which aligns with clustered October supply and the 0.382 Fibonacci extension. Failure leaves price oscillating between 88k and 91k while the market rebuilds energy.

💼 Options and Positioning Dynamics

Deribit’s 20 day Swing Model lifted its upper envelope to $100,299 overnight, reinforcing the mean reversion case. The lower volatility guardrail at $76,162 remains intact, giving the structure clear upper and lower bounds. The model carries a 91% historical accuracy rate around trend swing edges, and that statistic supports why the bounce had structural probability behind it.

Near dated implied volatility firmed around 12% through November 27 as traders re hedged post band breach. Skew still leans slightly toward puts, but that is mechanical repositioning rather than predictive sentiment. I am treating these IV moves as reactive rather than directional.

$COIN continues to be a clean proxy for this Bitcoin move. Price rebounded directly off the 0.618 retracement in the purple band. The next decisive level sits at the green macro band near $380. That band has defined the entire bottoming base for months, and behaviour there will tell me whether the equity proxy confirms or contradicts Bitcoin’s mean reversion path.

📰 Catalyst Layer

This is a technically driven phase, not a narrative driven one. November’s $2.1B long liquidation flush cleared weak positions and flattened open interest across the major venues, leaving the derivatives curve calmer than earlier this month. Seasonal crypto flows through late November and early December typically produce volatility contractions followed by opportunistic upside bursts in thin hours.

Tiger platform specific data also supports the shift. Crypto volumes rose around 18% on November 27 across BTC and ETH pairs as traders reacted to the volatility reset. That kind of coordinated pickup during a low volume period often helps confirm that the move was not random.

Macro remains neutral, allowing the technical structure to dominate. This entire setup is about whether Bitcoin can transform band exhaustion and volatility rollover into a controlled move toward the weekly mean.

🔍 What I’m Watching Next

• A firm hold above $91,200 to maintain structural integrity

• A break and hold above $93,350 with volume above 1.2x the prior session

• Reaction at $97,800 where October supply clusters

• Dominance remaining capped under the 20 week SMA at 57.8%

• Any wick into 88k to 89k that confirms demand

• A glide path toward the weekly midline at $99,800 if momentum sustains

• How $COIN behaves into the green macro band at $380

A decisive break through $93,350 could accelerate price into $97,800 quickly, given the compressed volatility backdrop. A rejection likely forces a reload near 88k to 89k. The next few sessions will determine whether this reversal becomes the clean mean reversion that the structure suggests.

🏁 Conclusion

This is one of the most aligned technical inflection setups Bitcoin has presented this quarter. The weekly band exhaustion, the reclaim above $91k, the dominance stall, the volatility reset, and the model alignment all converge cleanly around the $91,200 pivot. The question now is whether the market converts this tactical lift into a measured advance toward the weekly mean near 100k. Liquidity normalisation next week will decide how much durability sits behind this bounce.

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