FRIDAY FINISH STRONG “Back to Buying”: A Shift in Market Sentiment
Broad-Based Rally Signals Renewed Risk Appetite
A strong rebound wrapped up the week: Index Close Change.
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Dow Jones 46,245.41 +1.08%
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$S&P 500(.SPX)$ 6,602.99 +0.98%
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$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ 22,273.08 +0.88%
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447 of 500 stocks rose in the S&P 500; 25 of 30 Dow components gained. Buying finally broadened beyond mega-cap tech.
This signals a potential turn in market sentiment after a risk-off stretch. Investors finally started buying the dip.
Category Stock Move : Hot Stock Ross Stores +8.4%. Biggest Loser Oracle -5.7%. Best Sector Materials +2.2%. Worst Sector Utilities +0.2%.
Stocks
Rate Cut Hopes Return - Major Catalyst for the Rally
FED
New York Fed President John Williams called policy “modestly restrictive” and said he still sees room for a rate cut in the near term.
Fed futures immediately priced in a 70% chance of a December cut, jumping from just 39% yesterday, a major shift in expectations.
The market remains hypersensitive to Fed language, and today’s optimism was driven almost entirely by lower-rate expectations.
AI Stocks: Still in the Penalty Box - Except One
Google AI
Despite the rally, AI leaders continued to lag:
Stock Change $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ -1.0% $Microsoft(MSFT)$ -1.3% $Oracle(ORCL)$ -5.7% (Biggest Loser).
But one name stood out: $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ +3.5%, now the 3rd-largest company in the world, passing Microsoft.
Why? Google’s Gemini 3 AI model launch shifted perception:
Old view: AI laggard, overpriced. New view: Strong cash flow, AI upside, lower capital risk than peers.
Alphabet’s advertising engine gives it a funding moat. In contrast, OpenAI and others may need debt, dilution, or higher-risk capital to keep the AI race alive.
Investor narrative is changing: Alphabet is now seen as a lower-risk AI play, potentially the leader in the “AI value” trade.
Next Week - Holiday Edition
Markets closed Thursday (Thanksgiving) Early close Friday
Key data next week: Tuesday: Retail Sales (Sept.) & Producer Price Index
Wednesday: Durable Goods (Sept.) + Final Fed Beige Book
Remaining earnings:
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Monday: Zoom
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Tuesday: Dell & HP
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Wednesday: Deere
Earnings season wrap: ~95% of S&P 500 companies have reported. 80% beat EPS estimates And 75% beat sales expectations.
Watch For Rotation
Today looked less like a tech-driven rebound and more like sector rotation. That could hint at a healthier market ahead…
If rate-cut expectations hold above 60%, the Cyclical sectors and small-caps may lead and Value over growth could return… AI trade becomes more selective…
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