To The Moon

US stocks recovered from earlier losses last Friday, battling back from Wall Street's steepest sell-off in over a month as investors await more economic data in the coming days ahead of the Federal Reserve's next rate decision in December.

The best-performing concepts is Africa Concept. Considering the different perceptions of the stock, this time TigerPicks chose $Anglogold Ashanti(AU)$ to have a fundamental highlight to help users understand it better.

In the past five days, $Anglogold Ashanti(AU)$ 's share price has risen by 14.38%.

$Anglogold Ashanti(AU)$

AngloGold Ashanti plc is a global gold mining company with a diverse portfolio of operations, projects and exploration activities in 10 countries, across four continents.

I see AngloGold Ashanti as a very interesting vehicle. It’s not the greatest global product, given that that role belongs to giants like $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ or $Barrick Mining Corporation(B)$ , but I think that that’s just where its appeal is: AU combines relevant scale with an outstanding operating efficiency, which turns it into a direct proxy of new gold. Margins EBITDA near 49%, ROE above 30%, and a balance practically without any debts are signals that the company is ready to fully capture this period.

My thesis is simple and at the same time straight to the point: if gold manages to consolidate in a price floor ranging $3,000/oz or more, AU deserves superior multiples for its historical average and offers an attractive entrance before its peers. But if the metal retreats to $2,000/oz, the appeal decreases: AU would carry on being one of the most efficient operators in the sector, though now without the additional benefit of the re-rating that it offers nowadays.

Q2 2025 Results

The results of Q2 2025 confirmed that AngloGold Ashanti not only benefits from the price of gold but that it’s also carrying out with discipline. The company produced 804 koz, a raise of 21% YoY, as well as maintaining an ASIC of $1,666/oz. This fact is key, given that it shows us that, in a market where gold is sold at more than double that cost, the expansion of margins is practically guaranteed.

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From the financial perspective, the leap was even more notorious. An adjusted EBITDA reached $1.44B, duplicating last year’s level (+111%), whereas FCF reached $535MM, a leap of 149% YoY.

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To me, the most important signal was in the balance: the company reduced its net debt to just $92MM, 92% less than a year ago, which practically leaves it in a net cash position. That strength allowed it to announce a dividend of $406MM, reflecting a direct refund to the shareholder that other producers still can’t provide.

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I don’t think it’s fair to attribute all that performance just to the gold rally. There is something even deeper: the portfolio of assets that AngloGold is giving priority to. In the Mining Forum Americas 2025, the management expressed it clearly:

We are building a resilient portfolio of low-cost, high-quality assets.

That phrase resumes that strategical approach: growing through quality, not volume on its own.

What I see in these numbers is that Q2 2025 marked a before and after: it’s no longer a tailwind trimester but a validation that AU can operate with top-class efficiency within a market that has already changed its structural rank.

Valuation, Profitability, and Growth

AU quotes at a P/E FWD of 13.9x. Before the sector, which averages 16.6x, it still appears with a discount.

Something similar happens with EV/EBITDA FWD in 7.2x. It’s below the sector average of 8.8x, which shows that it’s still not given its due credit.

The P/B FWD of 4.6x fits in that same logic. It can appear high if I compare it to the 1.6x of the sector average, but it reflects reality: each equity dollar in AU generates much more value than most of its competitors.

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With an EBITDA margin of 48.7%, a net margin of 23.6%, and an ROE of 31.7%, AU ranks among the elite of the sector. These numbers aren’t an isolated snapshot; they tell us a transformation story. In the last twelve months, the revenue grew more than 50%, EBIT more than 120%, and EPS nearly 200%.

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What calls my attention the most is the projection forwards. The consensus expects a CAGR of EPS of 36% from three to five years ahead, nearly triple the industry’s median. That tells me that we aren't before a fleeting increase but before a tendency that can consolidate.

Risks

The most obvious one is the dependency on the price of gold. If the metal strongly retreats, for example, due to a change in the monetary policy that returns the dollar and bonds to prominence, current mining valuations would suffer, and AU wouldn’t be the exception.

Despite the price, the company is still carrying out operations in various African jurisdictions where regulatory stability isn’t always guaranteed.

The expectations risk is also present. Nowadays, the market already pays AU higher multiples than in the past, and that sets the bar higher.

Finally, I think of something less tangible but equally important: the AngloGold narrative still brings to mind, in some investors, the label of “enhanced mid-tier.”

Conclusion

After all this analysis, my impression is clear: AngloGold Ashanti is in a hinge moment. I see multiples still moderated before the sector, extraordinary margins that justify the premium before its own story, and a growth that leaves the industry’s median far behind. And we add gold that nowadays moves near $4,000/oz to all that; the rerating potential is evident.

That's why my rating is Buy. AU is not only a bet on gold; it’s also a bet on a miner that learned to create its own story. And as long as the market keeps seeing it as a second-line player, I think that that’s where the opportunity really is, given that I consider re-rating is still far from over.

Stock Price Forecast:

Here are the target price forecasts for the next 12 months from analysts.

Based on 7 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Anglogold Ashanti PLC in the last 3 months. The average price target is $82.83 with a high forecast of $128.00 and a low forecast of $53.82. The average price target represents a 4.33% change from the last price of $79.39.

Resource:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4829621-anglogold-ashanti-efficiency-growth-and-the-4000-gold-era

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