$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Probability Scenarios for Next Week
Here are the three possible scenarios with probability estimates based on trend strength, EMA positioning, and price structure.
Scenario A — Rebound Begins Next Week
Probability: 55% (Most likely)
Price holds above 22,600, forming a bullish candle (hammer or engulfing).
Expected move:
➡️ Rebound → 23,500
➡️ Retest → 24,000
➡️ Potential breakout → 24,200+
Reason:
Trend extremely strong
EMAs rising
Pullback looks orderly
Scenario B — Deeper Pullback Before Rebound
Probability: 35%
Price dips to 21,900 – 22,200 (EMA20 / major support) before bouncing.
Expected move:
➡️ Strong bounce → 23,200
➡️ Gradual retest → 24,000
Reason:
Normal correction after a strong rally
Many buyers waiting at EMA20
Scenario C — Trend Weakens (Bearish)
Probability: 10%
Price breaks below 21,300.
Expected move:
➡️ Could extend down to 20,800 – 21,000
➡️ Uptrend becomes neutral
➡️ Requires time to rebuild momentum
Reason:
Would require heavy selling pressure
Not supported by the current candlestick behavior
EMAs still in strong bullish alignment
This is unlikely unless a major macro shock happens.
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