SPX Hits 6844 Resistance
As expected, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounced into the upper Daily iFVG resistance at 6749–6844 ✅
The rebound was strong, closing above the 61.8% retracement, yet the internal structure looks corrective — suggesting it may be a phony 2nd/B-wave bounce rather than the start of a new impulse.
While bulls currently hold short-term momentum, I’m watching for a short setup to confirm:
- One of SPX, $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , or $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fails to make a higher high
- A bullish FVG forms
- The triad then closes below their FVGs, triggering the sell signal
If a bearish SMT divergence fails to form, risk increases that the bullish alternate (another push higher) is unfolding.
Bullish Alternate: The wave count from the April low in SPX and NDX isn’t perfectly clean, leaving a small chance of one final high toward 7000-50 before the correction begins.
A bearish SMT divergence is still absent across SPX, NDX, and DJI, warning one or two may make a new all-time high before rolling over.
If so, the current decline would mark a 4th-wave pullback before a 5th-wave rally completes the structure.
This alternate is invalid below 6420 and very unlikely below 6550, as that would breach the 2021–2025 trendline and Weekly FVG major supports.
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