To The Moon

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ 

November’s Embedded Edge

November seasonality remains one of the strongest structural trends in markets. Ten-year averages show the following ETF leaders:

• SMH +8.01%, positive in 90% of Novembers

• ITB +6.94%, positive in 100%

• XBI +6.73%, positive in 80%

• XLK +4.59%, positive in 90%

• SPY +4.33%, positive in 90%

This pattern consistently coincides with cyclical rotations and liquidity chases into growth. Semiconductors, housing, and biotech funds dominate the statistical edge, signalling that capital systematically tilts toward compute and innovation sectors into year-end.

Flow Backdrop Locks In

The 10 Nov 25 session confirmed the rotation. High-beta proxies rallied while inverse hedges were liquidated.

• SOXL +7.71%, TQQQ +6.55%, QQQ +2.21%

• SOXS −7.61%, SQQQ −6.58%, SPXU −4.44%

The top three most-traded ETFs were SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares), SQQQ (ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ), and TSLL (Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares). This inverse leadership reversal highlights short covering in semiconductors and leveraged inflows into growth. The ETF heatmap closed uniformly green across technology, semis, and AI-linked names.

New Leverage Flows and Product Launches

Leverage Shares announced a new suite of 2× ETFs expanding access across high-demand single stocks:

• 2× Long NU ($NUG), NET ($NETG), OKTA ($OKTG), TER ($TERG), NEM ($NEMG), CMG ($CMGG), SPOT ($SPOG), ABNB ($ABNG), and SBUX ($SBU).

This signals structural demand for amplified exposure in growth franchises, reinforcing the risk-on tone of November’s tape.

CoreWeave’s ETF Ecosystem and Conversion Drag

CoreWeave ($CRWV) now sits at the centre of multiple ETF structures. Its exposure spans traditional and leveraged products, expanding institutional reach:

• Renaissance IPO ETF ($IPO): 3.73% weighting

• First Trust Cloud Computing ETF ($SKYY): 3.69%

• Alger Mid Cap 40 ETF ($FRTY): 3.67%

Leverage-based vehicles track its performance directly: 2× Long ($CRWG, $CRWU, $CWVX), 2× Short ($CORD), and income-focused ($CWII).

Operationally, Q3 revenue reached US $1.36B, up 134% YoY, while backlog surged to US $55.6B. Approximately 40% of contracts convert within two years, 39% within four, and 21% beyond. Despite this, H1 25 revenue of US $2.194B came alongside a US $1.517B increase in accounts receivable, rising from US $416.5M to US $1.934B. That equates to roughly 32% cash conversion, implying CRWV is financing its hyperscaler clients. Sustained revenue recognition with delayed cash realisation demands scrutiny.

Insider Prints and Sentiment Context

Recent insider sales provide additional texture. CEO Michael Intrator and senior executives sold into strength above US $130 between late October and early November, ahead of the post-earnings guide revision. While not an overt red flag, it reinforces management’s awareness of short-term overvaluation and near-term liquidity sensitivity.

Tape Structure and Technical Compression

The 4H and 30 min charts show a descending channel squeeze. Price is testing first support at US $89.7–90, with an extension zone to US $84 on further selling. Reclaiming US $94 flips the setup to mean reversion with a retest target at US $108. NVDA, by comparison, displays a similar squeeze but retains relative strength after SoftBank’s US $5.83B sale, which acted as an absorbable supply event. SoftBank’s divestment, part of its broader capital recycling strategy into new AI ventures such as OpenAI, helped drive quarterly profits above ¥2.5 trillion while confirming its continued AI exposure through indirect channels. The post-sale stabilisation confirms continued institutional accumulation, supported by Jensen Huang’s decisive tone to “deploy now.” NVDA’s resilience illustrates that capital rotation remains concentrated within the semiconductor and AI compute complex, not diverging from CoreWeave but rather validating its structural role within the ecosystem.

Positioning Asymmetry and Forward Strategy

Macro rotation, seasonal probability, and AI infrastructure scaling are converging. CRWV embodies this alignment but introduces a critical variable through its receivable lag. The disciplined framework I’m applying:

• Sector Core: Overweight SMH and XLK to capture seasonal strength.

• Alpha Satellite: Trade CRWV near US $90 support with stop under US $84, add on confirmed reclaim of US $94 if AR-to-sales ratio rises above 45%.

• Hedge Discipline: Monitor SMH or XLK 20-day moving averages for rotation fade signals.

The asymmetry is clear. Liquidity favours compute, flows confirm positioning, and semiconductors lead the fourth-quarter pivot. If CRWV’s working capital stabilises while backlog converts, it may decouple from sector cyclicality and redefine leadership in the AI liquidity cycle. NVDA remains the benchmark; its ability to absorb supply shocks while sustaining momentum underpins the entire AI infrastructure trade and sets a directional cue for CRWV’s next leg.

👉 Fork: If AR normalises to 45%+ and US $94 holds, does CRWV pre-empt NVDA’s next silicon cycle, or remain capped near 4× FY26 sales until balance sheet risks clear?

📢 Tape doesn’t lie. Repost if you’re scaling the squeeze, reply your $CRWV level, and follow for unfiltered flow reads and setups that move markets.

Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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