Crypto Poised to Rebound: A Rally Likely This Week
Cryptocurrencies show signs of a rebound, and a rally is likely this week. Although last week’s widely watched U.S. government shutdown issue remained unresolved, the prevailing view is that the two parties will reach a compromise this week as time goes on. With newsflow relatively muted over the weekend, the crypto market’s unusual rebound seems to be front‑running that possibility. As a key leading indicator, once it stabilizes, overall market risk appetite is expected to improve to some extent in the near term.
Ether briefly tested lows near 3,000 dollars last week, but short‑term technical demand absorption still looks fairly solid. After reclaiming 3,355, the need for continued correction and consolidation remains evident. Notably, on the weekly timeframe, prior episodes featuring long lower wicks were followed by rebounds and consolidation to varying degrees. Into year‑end, it’s quite possible to see a few weeks of range‑bound grinding after a rebound within a platform zone.
Another relative strength gauge, ETH/BTC, is now near resistance at the top of its descending channel. Theoretically, a breakout above resistance would imply Ether outperforms Bitcoin in the short run, which also supports a broader corrective recovery across crypto. Since April this year, Ether has been more representative of sentiment, while Bitcoin has acted more as a risk hedge. However, if ETH/BTC keeps facing pressure or stalls back at the prior platform after a bounce, the medium‑term bias remains tilted to the downside.
Compared with crypto, U.S. equities saw a catch‑up decline last week. Nvidia, the sector bellwether, printed a daily island reversal and fully filled the lower gap. The pivotal 188 level briefly broke intraday, but the weekly close managed to hold above it. This suggests a short‑term stalemate between bulls and bears, with 177/188 providing firm support, while a fresh breakout above 202/206 will be challenging in the near term. Given the current relatively depressed price zone, the odds favor an upward move this week.
Index‑wise, the setup looks similar. On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq printed a bearish engulfing body and filled the gap from the prior upside break, but 24,158 has not been breached, so back‑and‑forth remains likely. The recent decline looks more like theater—or another technical reset within a steady uptrend. Without a regime change in the two most critical macro fundamentals, it remains difficult for U.S. equities to enter a true bearish reversal.
Among the “three horses,” relative strength still ranks as U.S. equities > precious metals > crypto; if U.S. stocks confirm a downtrend later, the other two will likely struggle to stand alone. In terms of forward‑looking signals, the order reverses. In other words, after seeing a crypto rebound over the weekend, precious metals are expected to rebound this week as well, followed by U.S. equities in the same rhythm. Only when both crypto and precious metals have completed their rebound cycles or reached sufficient heights can one combine the setup in U.S. equities to judge whether the next medium‑term leg will trend higher or lower.
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