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$NEBIUS(NBIS)$ earnings are scheduled to be released on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, before market open.

Nebius Group (NBIS) Q3 2025 Earnings Analysis

Nebius Group's primary driver is its AI-native cloud platform and its role in the booming AI infrastructure market. The company has recently garnered significant investor attention due to its high growth rates and major contract wins.

Analyst Expectations (Consensus)

Based on analyst forecasts, the consensus for the fiscal Q3 2025 (ending September 2025) is:

The company is currently focused on aggressive expansion and capital expenditure, which is why an EPS loss is expected, despite rapid revenue growth.

Nebius Group (NBIS) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

The Nebius Group (NBIS) fiscal Q2 2025 (ended June 30, 2025) earnings, reported on August 7, 2025, were characterized by hyper-growth in its core AI cloud business and a significant raise in its forward guidance, reinforcing the company's position as a critical provider in the AI infrastructure race.

Key Financial Highlights (Q2 2025)

Lessons Learned from Q2 2025 Guidance

The primary lesson from the Q2 2025 report and subsequent guidance is that execution on capacity expansion is the single most important factor driving the company's value, overshadowing traditional profitability metrics.

The Growth Narrative is All About Capacity and ARR

Lesson: Nebius's valuation is driven by its ability to secure and deploy AI infrastructure capacity and immediately sell that capacity via long-term contracts (ARR).

Evidence: Management raised the 2025 year-end ARR guidance from the previous range of $750 million - $1.0 billion to a new range of $900 million - $1.1 billion, directly citing strong contract wins and an aggressive scaling plan.

Investor Implication: For high-growth AI infrastructure companies, the market prizes capacity deployment and the rate of contract capture over near-term EPS or net income.

High Growth Demands Immense Capital Investment

Lesson: Capturing hyper-growth in the AI space is extremely capital-intensive. The cost of entry and expansion is massive.

Evidence: The company maintained its $2 Billion CapEx guidance for 2025 and reported a $510.6 million CapEx outlay in Q2 alone. They are also actively securing over 1 Gigawatt (GW) of power capacity by the end of 2026.

Investor Implication: High CapEx and cash burn from operations are accepted, and even expected, as long as they are directly translating into higher ARR guidance and successful deployment of new, high-demand GPU clusters. The core risk is whether future revenue will justify the capital spent.

Operational Leverage is Emerging Early (But Not Group-Wide)

Lesson: High utilization of the installed AI capacity is quickly translating into operational leverage.

Evidence: The core AI business achieved positive Adjusted EBITDA ahead of schedule, demonstrating strong utilization of its high-margin computing resources.

Investor Implication: While the group-level consolidated results are still negative due to massive overhead and expansion costs, the positive core EBITDA signals that the underlying business model is profitable once the capacity is online and utilized.

The Q2 2025 report solidified the view that Nebius is in an "Accelerate at All Costs" phase, where successfully raising and deploying capital to meet unprecedented AI demand is the top priority, and the most vital metric is the Annualized Run Rate (ARR) driven by new capacity.

Key Metrics Investors Should Watch

Given NBIS's position as a high-growth AI infrastructure provider, investors will be focused less on immediate profitability and more on metrics that indicate future capacity, execution, and demand capture.

1. Annualized Run Rate (ARR) & Guidance

Why it matters: ARR in the AI infrastructure space is a crucial forward-looking metric, showing the value of recurring contracts. The company previously guided for a significant increase in ARR by the end of 2025.

Key watch-out: Look for the actual reported Q3 ARR and any updated ARR guidance for the end of 2025. A substantial beat or miss here will likely drive the stock's reaction.

2. Revenue and Revenue Growth Rate

Why it matters: NBIS has reported massive year-over-year revenue growth (over 600% in Q2 2025). Investors need to see this accelerating or sustaining at high levels to justify the company's premium valuation.

Key watch-out: Look for the absolute Q3 Revenue number and the Year-over-Year (YoY) Growth Percentage.

3. Data Center Capacity Expansion

Why it matters: The core of NBIS's business is providing GPU compute capacity. The pace of deploying new data centers and securing new capacity is directly linked to future revenue.

Key watch-out: Details on current connected capacity (in MW), progress towards the 1 GW by 2026 goal, and updates on the deployment schedule for its massive Microsoft contract (valued at $19.4 billion).

4. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure (CapEx)

Why it matters: Building AI infrastructure is capital-intensive. The company is taking on significant debt (nearly $1 billion as of Q2) to fund this expansion.

Key watch-out: CapEx spending in the quarter, the cash position, and any update to the $2B CapEx guidance for 2025. Any signs of a strain on the balance sheet or unexpected increases in the cost of expansion could concern investors.

Nebius (NBIS) Price Target

Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Nebius Group in the last 3 months. The average price target is $155.75 with a high forecast of $206.00 and a low forecast of $130.00. The average price target represents a 39.96% change from the last price of $111.28.

Short-Term Trading Opportunity Post-Earnings

Trading NBIS around earnings carries a high degree of risk due to its high volatility and premium valuation.

Factors Suggesting Volatility:

High Valuation: The stock has soared significantly (over 475% in the past year) and trades at a high Price-to-Sales (P/S) multiple, suggesting that substantial future growth is already priced in. Any sign of a slowdown could lead to a sharp sell-off.

Historical Volatility: The stock has historically shown high volatility around earnings. For example, in the immediate aftermath of previous reports, the stock has often seen double-digit percentage moves.

NBIS implied volatility (IV) is 114.7, which is in the 92% percentile rank. This means that 92% of the time the IV was lower in the last year than the current level. The current IV (114.7) is 5.7% above its 20 day moving average (108.5) indicating implied volatility is trending higher.

Focus on Forward Guidance: Since the stock's valuation is based on massive future growth, a market reaction will be driven less by the EPS beat/miss and more by the updated ARR and capacity expansion guidance.

Potential Trading Scenarios:

The short-term trading opportunity is characterized by extremely high risk and potential reward. Given the company's historical volatility around earnings, traders should expect a significant price movement. The market's reaction will likely hinge on the Annualized Run Rate (ARR) and the progress/guidance for data center capacity expansion, particularly any updates regarding the Microsoft deal, as these metrics are paramount to Nebius's future outlook.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

It looks like NBIS was also affected by concerns of its valuation as we can see that the share price was trading slightly below 50-day period, though the RSI momentum remains positive. So we might see some volatility in NBIS share price trading today (10 Nov) before its earnings on Tuesday.

There is also focus on the Annualized Run Rate (ARR) and how the company would provide the outlook or guidance for its data center capacity expansion, so investors might want to see if NBIS could keep up with the demand and gather significant growth in its ARR with capacity expansion.

Summary

Nebius Group (NBIS) are expected to be reported on November 11, 2025.

However, the general market anticipation is summarized as follows:

Consensus Forecast: Analysts anticipate an Earnings Per Share (EPS) loss of $-0.50 for the fiscal quarter ending September 2025.

AI Momentum: Expectations are high due to Nebius's focus on AI cloud infrastructure and its rapid revenue growth in prior quarters (Q2 2025 revenue was up 625% year-over-year).

Key Growth Driver: Investors are looking for updates on the deployment timeline and financial impact of the $19.4 billion, five-year contract with Microsoft to provide dedicated GPU capacity for Azure.

Valuation Concerns: Despite the strong growth narrative, some analysts caution that the stock's current sky-high valuation suggests limited near-term upside and makes it highly sensitive to any sign of growth slowdown.

The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, driven by the massive demand in the AI computing sector and the major Microsoft deal, despite the expected quarterly loss.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Nebius could overcome its valuation concerns with significant demand from the AI computing sector.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.