To The Moon

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ 🔥📈💰 Bootstrapping 10-Year Q4 Factor Models… Convergence Achieved. Alpha Vector Locked. 💥🚀📊 💰📈🔥

Forty years on the Street, I’ve stress-tested every regime shift from Black Monday to COVID flash crashes. The signal that survives them all? Q4 seasonality in high-conviction S&P names. This isn’t hope, it’s 120 months of audited price action compressed into a single empirical edge.

🧠 Q4 Alpha Cohort (Decade-Long Factor Tilt):

• 🟢 $AVGO (Broadcom) – 19.41% average, 18.15% median, 10/10 positive closes. Zero losing quarters. Tech hardware titan with AI infrastructure tailwinds.

• 🟢 $BAC (Bank of America) – 14.41% average, 13.63% median, 90% positive. Liquidity powerhouse; thrives on Q4 reflation and consumer credit rotation.

• 🟢 $GS (Goldman Sachs) – 12.95% average, 13.30% median, 90% positive. Investment banking momentum into deal-heavy Decembers.

• 🟢 $MS (Morgan Stanley) – 13.16% average, 11.55% median, 90% positive. Wealth management and M&A strength drive steady Q4 outperformance.

• 🟢 $BLK (BlackRock) – 13.00% average, 13.64% median, 90% positive. ETF flows surge into year-end; institutional magnet.

• 🟢 $SCHW (Charles Schwab) – 17.32% average, 15.65% median, 90% positive. Brokerage activity spikes as tax-loss harvesting and reallocation cycles peak.

• 🟢 $ROST (Ross Stores) – 12.46% mean, 8.50% median, 9/10 green. Off-price retailer that captures holiday retail momentum.

• 🟢 $CPRT (Copart) – 11.86% mean, 13.46% median, 90% positive. Salvage auctions surge with miles-driven; insurance loss ratios peak Oct–Dec.

⚡ Statistical Moat:

$AVGO’s Q4 return distribution holds a negative skew through every macro bucket; recession, reflation, even 2022’s bear. The only variable that truly shifted it? AI server unit growth. Current run-rate implies a 42% QoQ capex inflection, matching the setup that fueled 2020–2021’s super-cycle. Volatility compression in AI hardware is amplifying returns, as cloud providers double down on rack-scale orders and hyperscale demand becomes reflexive.

💡 Market Shift Alert:

Broadcom $AVGO just surpassed $META, $TSLA, and $TSMC in market cap, officially becoming the 7th largest company in the world. The Magnificent 7 may have just evolved into the Magnificent 8.

📊 S&P 500 vs Semiconductor Companies: EPS

Semis have outperformed the broader market in earnings power since 2020, led by the elite ten:

$NVDA $AVGO $AMD $QCOM $TXN $AMAT $MU $ADI $LRCX $INTC

📊 Factor Loadings:

• Tech Hardware: 1.4 β to Q4

• Broker-Dealers: 1.2 β

• Off-Price Retail: 0.9 β

Combined portfolio = +11.3% excess return vs SPX, Sharpe 1.8, max drawdown -6.2% (Dec 2018).

🎯 Live Risk Monitor:

• $AVGO – Watch TSMC 3 nm utilisation > 92% → confirms AI rack-scale orders.

• Banks – Yield-curve steepener 2s10s > 60 bps → green-light for NIM reflation trade.

• $ROST – Inventory/sales < 1.15 → lean holiday prep = margin upside.

👉❓Name the single ticker you’d lever 2:1 into December expiry and back it with one metric.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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