To The Moon

As at today’s date, there is insufficient public information to reliably project an exact end-date for the current shutdown. Historically, shutdowns only end when one (not both) of these conditions tips first:

(a) political pain > political benefit;

(b) market stress transmits clearly into funding conditions or polling.

At the moment, this shutdown has indeed crossed into the zone where liquidity narratives become relevant — Treasury cash-management, T-bill auctions, and dealer positioning can all begin to leak into equity sentiment if the impasse continues in the same manner for another couple of auction cycles.

Pullback interpretation

Based on market structure signals rather than headlines:

US large-caps are still trading nearer the upper half of their 3-month value areas.

Volatility term structure remains in contango (i.e. front VIX not explosively inverted).

This does not look like a confirmed regime reversal yet.

It looks more like a short-term de-risking while markets wait for a catalyst — the shutdown resolution being one of those catalysts.

When will it end?

Shutdowns do not end on dates — they end when the marginal legislator finally feels the pain curve.

The earliest “plausible window” historically (based on prior negotiations) is when:

Members return from recess with fresh polling feedback, and

Treasury communicates auction stress more explicitly.

Therefore, if one must place a probabilistic window — not a forecast — the first logical negotiation inflection would be within the next 2–4 weeks, but this is conditional on whether the shutdown actually manifests in polling shifts.

For liquidity concerns

Equity markets will regain confidence before the shutdown formally ends — the moment the market senses a viable framework deal is on the table.

Thus:

The market will recover first.

The paperwork signing will be lagging that by perhaps 24–72 hours.

So if this is merely a tactical pullback, the rebound could precede the official “end” headline.