To The Moon

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ 

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m convinced Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) isn’t just participating in the GLP-1 boom; it’s engineering a defensible ecosystem around direct-to-consumer personalised care. At $45.46, it’s trading in a consolidation zone that screams opportunity as the GLP-1 obesity wave rewires healthcare economics. Q3 2025 delivered $599 million in revenue (+49 % YoY) and $78.4 million in adjusted EBITDA (+53 % YoY), underscoring tangible operating leverage. Subscribers reached 2.47 million (+21 %), monthly revenue per user rose to $80 (+19 %), and 80 % of users now engage in multi-condition plans, proving this isn’t transactional telehealth, it’s a recurring ecosystem. Management narrowed full-year guidance to $2.335 – $2.355 billion revenue and $307 – $317 million EBITDA, reinforcing execution confidence. Active discussions with Novo Nordisk to distribute Wegovy injections and an oral variant could unlock a branded GLP-1 channel without compounding risk. With cash of $629 million, debt of $971 million, and sustainable net leverage near 1.1×, the balance sheet’s clean. Trading at only ~22× forward EV/EBITDA, HIMS offers asymmetric upside in a market where peers command 60× on slower growth.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown

Q3 revenue reached $598.98 million, up 49 % YoY, driven by 50 % growth in online sales to $589 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin held at 13 %, while gross margin dipped to 74 % (from 79 %) as fulfilment and diagnostics infrastructure expanded for scale. Net income $15.8 million (vs $75.6 million in Q3 2024 with tax benefit). EPS $0.06 missed $0.10 consensus, reflecting higher marketing at 39 % of revenue (down six points YoY) and stock-based comp. Operating cash flow $149 million (+74 %), free cash flow $79.4 million. Cash and short-term investments total $629 million. Subscriber count rose 21 % to 2.47 million, with personalised solutions users growing 50 %. Guidance for FY 2025 implies ~58 % revenue growth midpoint, with EBITDA margins near 13 %.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds & Execution Risk

Gross margin compression stems from front-loading logistics and compounding capacity for future scale. The Novo Nordisk partnership remains active but non-binding after the June compounding controversy. The FDA’s May 2025 ban on mass-compounded GLP-1s forces a pivot to branded variants, raising short-term regulatory uncertainty. International expansion in the UK, Germany and Canada through Zava adds compliance burdens and FX risk. While the company’s broadened mix into menopause and low-testosterone care boosts ARPU, margins could fluctuate short-term.

🧠 Analyst & Institutional Sentiment

BTIG’s David Larsen reiterated Buy, PT $85, highlighting GLP-1 tailwinds and 2030 targets of ~$6.5 billion revenue and $1.3 billion EBITDA (≈3× current scale). Canaccord stayed Buy, PT $68, while Leerink lifted to $46 from $43 (Market Perform). Truist held Hold PT $37 for “solid topline, margin squeeze from growth investment.” Consensus across 14 firms averages $49.80 PT (10 % upside), range $28–$89. Institutional ownership ~63.5 %, with Vanguard 7.5 %, BlackRock 11 %, iShares 7 %, and ARK Genomic adding Q3 exposure. Retail sentiment is extremely bullish on Stocktwits and Reddit, spiking 650 % post-earnings. Options flow shows heavy call buying at $50 strikes (Nov expiry).

📉📈 Technical Setup

HIMS is coiling within a descending wedge from the $73 February peak and testing the lower Bollinger Band near $45. Support sits at $44 (primary) and $40 (secondary). Resistance zones $50 and $60 align with Fibonacci levels. RSI 55–60 and curling up from oversold, MACD histogram turning positive on 4-hour chart. Keltner channels contract since October, priming for a volatility expansion. A close above $47.31 confirms breakout; volume > 1.5× average validates. Trade plan entry $44–$46, stop $38, base target $60, stretch target $80+.

🌍 Macro & Peer Context

Global GLP-1 adoption is accelerating at a pace few sectors can match. UBS projects roughly 40 million users by 2029, driving a $126 billion market opportunity. In October, the White House and major pharmaceutical firms finalised a Medicare pricing framework of about $149 per month for Wegovy and Zepbound, a policy shift that could make these treatments accessible to an additional 10 million U.S. seniors. This regulatory tailwind aligns perfectly with HIMS’s subscription-based, direct-to-consumer model. Telehealth remains a high-growth theme worldwide, with the global market expected to expand at 9.6 % CAGR to $121 billion by 2034 as chronic-condition management and digital diagnostics converge. Among peers, Teladoc (TDOC) trades near 60× EV/EBITDA despite just 10 % revenue growth, while HIMS trades at ~22× with a 62 % CAGR. The FDA’s clampdown on compounded GLP-1 formulations is redirecting demand toward branded therapies, precisely the space where HIMS’s potential Novo Nordisk partnership positions it for outsized capture.

📊 Valuation & Capital Health

Forward EV/EBITDA ≈ 22× and P/E ≈ 47× on FY 2025 EBITDA $312 million, undervalued against growth trajectory. Free cash flow yield 5 %, expanding toward 8 % by 2027 as scale drives efficiency. Cash $629 million, long-term debt $971 million, interest coverage > 5×. DCF base case implies ~$65 fair value; bull case $100 on Novo integration and international growth.

⚖️ Verdict & Trade Plan

I’m bullish and accumulating. This $44–$46 zone offers a defined-risk, high-conviction setup. Stop $38 (below trend support), base target $60, stretch target $80+. Catalysts include Q4 earnings (Feb 2026) for updates on GLP-1 partnerships and Hers brand milestones. With 49 % growth, 21 % subs and mounting cash flow, execution outpaces valuation.

🏁 Conclusion

I’m not chasing hype, I’m owning the compounding machine. Hims & Hers is transforming from telehealth disruptor to global health powerhouse through recurring care, AI-driven personalisation and GLP-1 monetisation. At $45, the market’s pricing in risk while ignoring scale and profitability. This is a compounder in disguise with the unit economics to lead the wellness renaissance. Execution beats noise, and fundamentals win wars.

📌 Key Takeaways

Q3 Revenue $599 M (+49 % YoY)

Adjusted EBITDA $78.4 M (+53 %)

Subscribers 2.47 M (+21 %), ARPU $80 (+19 %)

FY 2025 Guidance $2.335 – $2.355 B Revenue / $307 – $317 M EBITDA

Gross Margin 74 % (vs 79 %) due to expansion investment

BTIG PT $85 Buy | Canaccord $68 Buy | Truist $37 Hold | Consensus $49.8

Institutional Ownership ~63 %, Vanguard 7.5 %, BlackRock 11 %

Entry $44–$46 | Stop $38 | Base Target $60 | Stretch $80+

👉❓ If Hims & Hers secures a branded GLP-1 distribution deal with Novo Nordisk, at what point does the market re-rate HIMS from a telehealth multiple to a platform multiple, and what EV/EBITDA and free cash flow thresholds would justify that shift given 2025 guidance of $2.335–$2.355B revenue and $307–$317M EBITDA? Which catalyst would trigger the re-rating first, sustained gross margin recovery toward 77 to 79 %, or a confirmed ARPU inflection above $85 with accelerating subscriber growth?

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