To The Moon

1/ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ was once a market darling, now everybody hates it.

Yet, growth is still strong, the oral Wegovy is coming this quarter, and it has the strongest pipeline in weight-loss drugs.

Here is why NVO is a 2x opportunity now: 🧵

2/ Let's set the stage first: What does NVO do?

NVO is the global leader in diabetes treatment with a 33% market share.

This market has three main segments:

- Oral Anti-Diabetes drugs

- Insulin

- GLP-1

NVO holds the leadership position in all these markets.

Image

3/ It currently controls 42% of the global insulin market.

This has traditionally been Novo Nordisk's biggest business.

However, the balance is shifting.

Last year, insulin made up only 18% of the shares, while GLP-1 products made up 50% of all sales.

Image

4/ NVO is dominating global GLP-1 market too.

It currently controls over 52% of the global GLP-1 market.

Within this market, the fastest-growing category is GLP-1 for weight loss.

NVO is dominating that market too.

Image

5/ It currently has a 57% global market share in weight-loss drugs.

This market grew 142% since 2022, and market research firms project it to become a $130 billion market by 2035.

So, here is the question:

If NVO is so dominant, why does the stock keep falling?

Let's dig.

Image

6/ The main reason is competition.

$Eli Lilly(LLY)$ weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound rapidly took market share from $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ since their launch.

On top of that, Novo's upcoming drug Cagrisema disappointed in trial results.

These created the perception that NVO will lose the market to LLY.

I don't think that will happen.

Let me explain:

Image

7/ NVO has oral Wegovy coming later this year.

It'll be the first oral GLP-1 in the market as Lilly's Orforglipron will be launched in early 2026.

Plus, Novo's oral Wegovy is superior to Lilly's Orforgliprin as it provides 16.6% weight reduction after 64 weeks, while Orforglipron delivered 12.4% after 72 weeks.

Image

8/ NVO has the best weight-loss pipeline in the industry.

It currently has two Phase-III drugs:

- Cagrisema

- Oral Wegovy

I have already explained above that oral Wegovy is superior to $LLY's Orforglipron.

Cagrisema is intended to challenge Zepbound as it delivers more or less the same performance as Zepbound.

Two Phase-I drugs, Amycretin and Tri-Agonist, are the real gems.

Image

9/ Amycretin and Tri-Agonist are superior to all drugs in the pipelines of other companies.

Amycretin will rival $LLY pipeline drug Retatritude.

Though both drugs offer 24% weight reduction, Amycretin provides it in 36 weeks, while it takes 48 weeks for Retatritude.

Currently unnamed Tri-Agonist has no peer in Lilly's pipeline, and it showed 15% weight reduction in just 12 weeks.

Image

10/ Despite a strong market position, the valuation remains cheap.

NVO generated $46 billion in revenue in the last twelve months.

Even if we assume just 10% annual growth for the next 5 years, it'll generate $74 billion in revenue in 2030.

Assuming a stable 35% net margin, it'll generate $26 billion in net income.

Slap a conservative 15x earnings, and we have a $390 billion company.

It's currently valued at $166 billion, meaning it can easily double in the next 5 years even on conservative assumptions

.

Image

For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:

🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!

Find out more here：

• 💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉

• Cash Boost Account Supports CPF/SRS Linking, Enjoy 0 Custody Fees and 0 Commission*!

• 🎉The Cash Boost “Daily Draws” is Now Live – Come Join the Fun!

• Your first trade of the day = 1 lucky draw chance!

• 💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?