To The Moon

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Kia ora, traders. It’s 31 October 2025 here in Aotearoa, and I’ve just closed the screens on what might be the most mispriced macro-tech event of the year. Meta bled $200 billion in market cap yesterday, cratering 10.3 % to $674.10. I’m not here to sugar-coat the headline; I’m here to dissect it, own it, and turn it into alpha. This is my full-spectrum autopsy: fundamentals, technicals, macro, options flow, and the forward watchlist I’m trading live.

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m convinced the market has completely misread this sell-off. What we saw was emotional capitulation dressed up as fundamental decay. Meta’s Q3 FY25 results delivered record revenue of $51.24 billion (+26 % YoY) versus $49.6 billion expected, while ad impressions surged 14 % and price per ad climbed 10 %. Family DAUs hit 3.54 billion (+8 % YoY). The apparent EPS miss ($1.05 vs $6.72 est.) stemmed solely from a $15.93 billion non-cash tax charge tied to the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Adjust for that and core EPS was $7.25, a beat on every operating metric. Meta’s $25 billion bond issuance drew $125 billion in orders, the largest in corporate history. That’s not fear; it’s institutional conviction. CapEx for 2025 was raised to a range of $70–$72 billion, yet the same Street cheering Nvidia’s $180 billion spend punishes Meta for $70 billion. I call hypocrisy; I trade asymmetry.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown

Revenue $51.24 B vs $49.6 B expected, a 3.3 % beat. GAAP EPS $1.05 includes the one-time $15.93 B tax charge; adjusted EPS $7.25. GAAP EBIT margin 40.1 % (Q2 43 %, down 290 bps) and free cash flow margin 20.7 %. Cash and equivalents $44.45 B with $25 B in equity investments and $28.8 B long-term debt, leaving net cash around $40 B. Ad impressions rose 14 % and pricing 10 %. Free-cash-flow yield estimated 5.1 %, the cheapest since 2020. Q4 guidance ranges from $56 B to $59 B (midpoint +24 % YoY) with OpEx up 0.9 % and CapEx up 2.9 %. Meta’s CapEx trajectory shows the scale of its AI build-out: $15 B in 2020, $27 B in 2023, and a projected $100 B by 2026 as the company expands data centers, custom silicon (MTIA) and AI training clusters. This is not excess spending; it’s strategic positioning for long-duration AI returns.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds and Execution Risk

Zuckerberg closed with confidence: “Early returns in core business give us confidence to invest more; we don’t want to underinvest.” Markets fear spending without ROI; I see a CEO buying growth while cash flows fund the cycle. Reality Labs losses and GenAI infrastructure build will compress margins short term, but Business AI tools on WhatsApp and Instagram are already scaling. Meta’s MTIA chips cut inference costs roughly 40 % versus Nvidia H100s, supporting long-term margin recovery.

🧠 Institutional Chessboard

UBS analyst Stephen Ju reaffirmed Buy and raised his target to $915, forecasting 1.5 % EPS accretion from GenAI through 2026–27. Raymond James kept Strong Buy with $825 target, calling Meta “the highest ad ROI per GPU dollar in the Mag 7.” Consensus target around $870 implies ~30 % upside. Hedge-fund flows show rotation rather than exit; Tiger Global added 1.2 million shares in Q3 while Coatue trimmed 800 thousand but retained 3.4 million core. ETF exposure remains heavy: FBL 99.96 %, GXPC 26.45 %, IXP 21.93 %, XLC 15.21 %, QQQU 11.98 %. Options flow on 31 Oct shows March 2026 $775 calls (1,050 contracts, $3.78 M premium IV 39 %) versus Nov 7 $630 puts (1,200 contracts, $1.93 M premium); net bullish delta about $1.85 M.

Options traders are cautious short term but positioning for a rebound into mid-November. Volatility’s up, yet open interest and delta exposure suggest support forming ahead. These contracts are now worth about $19 M, up 300 % in just a couple of days as $META dropped 12 % overnight on earnings.

📉📈 Technical Blueprint

I’m tracking the four-hour chart closely. Price gapped through the 21 EMA near $740 and 55 EMA around $724, tagged $670 intraday, then rebounded 4.6 % into close on 1.8× average volume. RSI 34 (oversold) and MACD histogram turning positive. Meta’s 200D SMA bounce pattern isn’t just technical witchcraft; their 3.4 B daily impressions translate to serious cash flows that justify the bullish price action. Support sits near $659 where the 200-day average and 0.618 Fibonacci level intersect; resistance around $695 (VWAP) and $710 (gap fill). Upside levels $740 for 21 EMA retest and $775 for call strike extension. Break below $630 invalidates setup. I’m scaling 30 % position around $664 average with stop $629 and target $740 base (R:R 3.8:1).

🌍 Macro and Peer Context

The Meta 12 % sell-off feels unjustified for one reason: Wall Street rewards Nvidia with a $5T valuation for rising CapEx yet punishes Meta for the same. Only a few companies can buy Nvidia GPUs at the scale of the Mag 7; Meta is one of them. Jensen Huang’s “$500B in five quarters” forecast relies on clients like Meta. Google and Microsoft both lifted CapEx guidance, confirming this is an ecosystem-wide AI expansion cycle. If Nvidia’s valuation represents the revenue suppliers of AI infrastructure earn today, then Meta’s CapEx represents the ROI those suppliers will monetise tomorrow. The market should treat them symbiotically, not asymmetrically. Revenue grew 26 %, ad metrics rose double digits, and the tax charge is a one-time formality. The true fear lies in perception: that debt-fueled CapEx may delay AI returns. Yet with $25B raised against $125B demand in its latest bond sale, Meta’s credit markets are showing confidence even if equities aren’t.

📊 Valuation and Capital Health

At $670, Meta trades around 21× FY26 EPS and 12× EV/EBITDA, both below its five-year median. That’s a discount to Google at 23×, Microsoft 31×, and Nvidia 38×. Free-cash-flow yield is about 5.1 % versus 4.2 % for Google, 2.8 % for Microsoft, and 1.9 % for Nvidia. The $25 B bond sale was five times oversubscribed at 4.45 % yield, showing credit markets trust Meta’s balance sheet and cash flows. The valuation gap to peers with identical AI narratives is mathematically indefensible.

⚖️ Verdict and Trade Plan

I’m bullish long term and view this sell-off as a positioning window. Entry zone $659–$670; stop $630; base target $720; stretch target $775. Catalysts ahead include bond settlement 13 Nov, options expiry 7 Nov, Meta AI Search beta launch 20 Nov, and December FOMC meeting with 82 % cut probability. If momentum extends through November, this setup evolves from rebound to re-rating trade.

🏁 Conclusion

I’m not buying a social-media company; I’m buying the picks and shovels for the next internet. I’ve traded through 2022’s meta-crash, 2023’s AI mania, and every drawdown in between. This one smells identical; fear masquerading as analysis. The bond market, the options flow, the revenue trajectory, and the analyst upgrades all scream mispricing. I’m not hoping; I’m positioning. Execution beats fear. That’s why I’m here.

📌 Key Takeaways

Revenue $51.24 B (+26 % YoY), beat 3.3 %; EPS miss driven by tax only.

CapEx raised to $70–$72 B (+2.9 %) and OpEx +0.9 %.

Bond sale $25 B with $125 B orders, largest corporate deal ever.

RSI 34 oversold, MACD turning bullish.

UBS PT $915 (+38 % upside) and Raymond James $825.

Options flow $3.7 M calls vs $1.9 M puts.

ETF exposure XLC 15.21 %, QQQU 11.98 %, FBL 99.96 %.

Verdict Long-term buy zone $659–$670, target $775 by March 2026.

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