$COIN:Macro Cycle Risks Loom; Maintain HOLD and $300 PT
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ - 3Q:25 Preview: Solid Quarter with Deribit Contribution, but Macro Cycle Risks Loom; Maintain HOLD and $300 PT
Tiger Research are maintaining HOLD rating and $300 price target ahead of COIN’s 3Q25 earnings.
Global spot trading volume rose 41% q/q in 3Q, driven by higher crypto prices and increased volatility. However, Coinbase’s spot volume grew at a slower pace of 23% q/q, leading to a market share decline to 5.3% (from 6.0% in 2Q). Meanwhile, Coinbase International Exchange’s derivatives volume fell 52% q/q to $481B in 3Q.
Coinbase has completed its previously announced acquisition of Deribit, with financial consolidation beginning on August 14. According to the company’s press release, Deribit generated $185B of trading volume and over $30M of transaction revenue in July 2025, implying a take rate of 0.016% (vs. 1.51% retail and 0.030% institutional in 2Q). Importantly, Deribit is EBITDA-accretive, and we estimate it contributed approximately $46M in transaction revenue during 3Q.
We also raise our 3Q subscription and services revenue estimate by 19%, supported by higher stablecoin revenue and the altcoin season, which lifted the prices of major staking tokens such as ETH and SOL.
Overall, while we remain constructive on Coinbase’s strategic positioning and ongoing initiatives, we continue to flag risks tied to the BTC cycle. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin prices could peak around 4Q25, followed by a meaningful correction, consistent with prior cycles. While factors such as rising institutional adoption and U.S. deregulation may mitigate cyclical pressures, we remain cautious toward “this time is different” narratives until supported by data. As such, we view the risk-reward profile as balanced and maintain our HOLD rating.
Estimate revisions. We are increasing our 3Q:25 revenue estimate by 3%, driven by 8% lower trading revenue, but more than offset by 19% higher subscription and services revenue (see our CRCL 3Q preview note for stablecoin revenue estimates), yielding 4% higher adjusted EBITDA. We are also increasing our '25 revenue estimate by 2%, and adjusted EBITDA by 3%.
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