To The Moon

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ 

🧭 When Wall Street Starts Pricing in Orbit, You Pay Attention

There are moments in markets when a company crosses the line between potential and inevitability. Rocket Lab has just entered that phase. What was once a niche small-launch provider from New Zealand is now being modelled on Wall Street with Falcon 9 in its sights, Neutron on the launchpad, and Mars infrastructure in its strategic pipeline. Institutional money isn’t waiting for the headlines; it’s already placing its bets.

📊 Options Flow Surge: Institutions Positioning Early

$RKLB lit up the tape with a $382K call sweep on the $95C expiring 21Nov25. A total of 1,215 contracts traded at an average of $3.15, with $383,082 in premium crossing within a single 10-minute window. The wide bid/ask spread shows aggressive buying into strength rather than passive accumulation. For a company still in its scaling phase, this kind of targeted flow isn’t noise; it’s smart money laying groundwork ahead of a structural catalyst.

🧠 Analyst Initiation: Baird Targets $83 with Strong Growth Visibility

Baird initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and an $83 price target, implying +19.8% upside. Their thesis centres on the Neutron rocket’s upcoming entry into the highly lucrative medium-lift market in 2H25–early 2026, directly challenging SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

Key Baird highlights:

• 94% mission success rate reinforces Rocket Lab’s operational reliability.

• 34%+ revenue CAGR forecast through 2030 underpins premium valuation multiples.

• Neutron’s cadence and reusability are viewed as the pathway to a $200+ longer-term valuation.

• PT based on 30× 2030 revenue estimate, reflecting sustained visibility and competitive positioning.

Baird expects competitive positioning versus SpaceX and expanding launch cadence to drive structural upside as Rocket Lab scales its ecosystem.

📈 Chart Breakdown: Monster Run Meets Fib Breakout

On the two-weekly chart, price has ripped through the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $64.88 and is consolidating around $69.27. This follows a staggering +2,000% rally from the April 2024 low of $3.50. Momentum remains powerful, with little overhead congestion until the $83–$100 zone. Structural support now sits between $43 and $49, aligning with prior breakout levels and AVWAP compression, creating a clean technical framework for continuation.

🌌 Proud Kiwi Moment: New Zealand’s ‘Space Jellyfish’ Lights Up the Sky

As a proud Kiwi, I felt a surge of pride watching Rocket Lab’s recent launch illuminate the North Island sky. The “space jellyfish” plume wasn’t just visually breathtaking; it was a cultural moment. Families stepped onto their decks to witness a New Zealand company quite literally making history above their heads. It’s rare to see technological ambition and national identity converge so vividly.

🛰️ Strategic Vision: MTO & Mars Infrastructure

Peter Beck’s piece on the Mars Telecommunications Orbiter (MTO) is essential reading. He argues that leadership in deep space begins with infrastructure. MTO would provide the secure, real-time communications backbone between Earth and Mars, ensuring that when humanity finally steps onto Martian soil, that moment is shared live with the world.

Beck’s warning is clear: the risk isn’t that MTO can’t be built, it’s that it may not be prioritised. Without it, Mars missions will face degraded safety margins and limited operations. With it, Rocket Lab positions itself at the heart of interplanetary communications infrastructure.

🇺🇸 Policy Perspective: Why NASA Should Choose Rocket Lab

As an investor, I hope NASA awards Rocket Lab this contract. But as a tax-paying American, I also see the strategic imperative. The United States needs to broaden its commercial space layer beyond SpaceX. Rocket Lab offers a credible, technically advanced alternative that increases resilience and strengthens America’s position in deep space infrastructure. This isn’t just a contract; it’s a geopolitical signal.

📸 My Long Position

Here’s my current $RKLB position, sitting at +39.36% unrealised gains with a $51.60 average cost and price now at $71.90. The conviction here isn’t theoretical; it’s reflected in my portfolio.

📡 Investment Lens: Scaling into the Medium-Lift Era

Rocket Lab is evolving from a niche operator into a multi-segment aerospace leader. With Neutron, reusable launch systems, and potential Mars infrastructure contracts ahead, the company is entering its next growth epoch. Institutional flow suggests some investors are already looking far beyond the $83 PT, positioning for a decade-long aerospace build-out.

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