To The Moon

Bitdeer Shares Jump 30% After September Metrics Update—What Happened?

The AI-infrastructure trade is still running hot: despite U.S.–China headlines, many mining stocks keep making new highs—IREN is up an eye-catching 57% MTD in October—and Bitdeer's September update alone helped lift its shares about 25%, underscoring how “power + sites” can be rapidly repurposed for AI.

Bitdeer's September update: +25% share move

Bitdeer released its September operations update yesterday, sending its shares sharply higher. Key highlights:

~Production & hashrate. In September, Bitdeer mined 452 BTC, up +20.5% vs. August. Self-mining hashrate rose to 35.0 EH/s, with guidance to hit 40 EH/s by late October. Total “self-mining + hosting” under management reached 49.2 EH/s, with 153,000 self-owned miners. The company plans to phase out older third-party rigs to improve efficiency and margins.

~In-house miner & chip. The A3 series has entered mass production (air- and liquid-cooled). Indicative efficiency: 12.5–14 J/TH (air) and 12.5–13.5 J/TH (liquid), with top performance up to 660 TH/s. SEAL04 (A4-gen chip) taped out; early samples measure <10 J/TH at the chip level, with a long-term target of 5 J/TH.

~Power & AI/HPC. Bitdeer secured power delivery for the 570 MW Clarington (Ohio) site no later than Q3 2026, a material acceleration versus earlier expectations, and says the campus is designed “AI-first” from day one. It also plans to convert Norway Tydal Phase II (175 MW) and Wenatchee, Washington (13 MW) into AI data centers. By end-2026, Bitdeer targets >200 MW of AI IT load, mostly owned. In a blue-sky case where the fleet is fully GPU-equipped as an “AI factory,” management sees ARR> $2 billion.

~Today's small AI cloud footprint. Bitdeer.AI is running at an ~$8 million ARR pace for September, with 584 GPUs installed at roughly 86% utilization and a 1,160-GPU goal by year-end. The company is in talks for GB300/B300 platforms.

Two ways to “pivot to AI”

Light-asset: hosting/colocation. The miner provides power + space + operations + networking; customers bring their own servers/GPUs. Revenues are per-kW/rack plus services. Capex is lighter and cash flows resemble utility-like returns, but revenue per MW is lower than owning GPUs. Bitdeer’s “AI-ready from day one” site design mainly targets this flexibility.

Heavy-asset: own the GPUs (“AI factory”). The company buys GB300/B300-class systems and runs a GPU cloud/cluster-leasing model. Revenue per MW is highest, but so are up-front investments (GPUs, networking, software stack) and supply access hurdles. Bitdeer’s “>200 MW →>$2B ARR” blue-sky statement fits this path; IREN is likewise scaling AI cloud (targeting ~23,000 GPUs in 2025) and is often cited as a leading “miner-to-AI” example.

The Unique Value of Bitcoin Mining Farms

The AI boom is driving unprecedented power demand. A Morgan Stanley report (September) estimates the U.S. faces a ~45-GW data-center power shortfall between 2025 and 2028. Even with natural-gas and nuclear solutions, the gap persists.

Unlike greenfield projects that need years to interconnect, Bitcoin miners already control grid-connected campuses. Morgan Stanley points to roughly 6.3 GW operating and another 2.5 GW under construction at U.S. miners—making them the fastest, lowest-execution-risk power on-ramp for AI.

Crucially, many mining stocks are still priced on BTC-mining logic, leaving their EV/Watt multiples very low. Converting a mining site to an HPC-ready “powered shell” and leasing it long term can, per Morgan Stanley’s value-creation model, generate ~$5–$8 of equity value per watt, well above current trading levels for many miners. In a 100-MW example:

~Hyperscaler tenant: ~$519 million equity value ($5.19/W).

~Neocloud tenant: ~$781 million equity value ($7.81/W).

Risks: The sector has rallied sharply in the near term, the AI trade is crowded—watch for a potential pullback.

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