To The Moon

As the saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me!” It appears appropriate to take the TACO road… if lesson from April (fools) is to be learnt at all.

Having said that, I would rather err on the fool side. Shame is but a feeling of a human being after all. Market has many lessons during my decades long of learning and investing. Trump is but a teeny-weeny episode of them all. The current bull has been raging for a long while now, and it does not take much for market to find excuses to take a breather. The trigger could be Trump, it might have been China, the Middle East wars, or simply the bubble burst after the market irrational euphoria.

After decades in the market, I can only take what market gives, catch what market throws. Many market participants today have not experienced the doom-like feeling market gives. Many have only experienced market rebounds after corrections and feel that it is only the norm. This assessment could not be more wrong. But today does not feel like the day for meltdown either.

Why?

Market is vicious. It strikes when no one is looking. When enough market participants believe that market will keep coming back, TACO or otherwise, we will be in trouble. The day will come and the countdown has in fact started… it may not be in the coming weeks, or this year. But it will come. It always does.

The catch is if it is here, where will you be? In denial mode, believing that market will always come back? Believing that as long as you invest in strong companies such as Apple, Nvidia, META, or even DBS Singapore, you will be safe? The only safe bet I can be sure is Hathaway Berkshire, which has stored enough “grains” to prepare for this day. Trust me, I have seen this happen time and again.

What do I believe? Does not matter. As I had written, I take what market gives, catch what market throws.

TACO or no TACO, trade war or otherwise, precious metals group is still the safe bet for me. It is not that I don’t trust cryptocurrencies. But, its history is too short and its price is set by whales… not you and me. Just look at the behaviour of some charts if you are not convinced.

Do they inspire confidence? Not for me...

For sure, they have rebounded handsomely this morning... all these speculative trades are still alive and kicking... they give the exact reason why cryptocurrencies are still a far cry from being a companion of trust and stability.

Another trade I have been doing but did not have an opportunity to perform in the past market meltdowns is options. I believe in protecting myself, even though I might have lost some money when the euphoria is still going strong. I believe in market insurance… a tool I never had in the past. With tiger app, I have the option and I am going to grab it. The most important thing for me is not about missing the gains, but not losing my pants when the tide goes out.

What are you doing? Pouncing on every opportunity market lets you. Believe in TACO? Be careful what you wish for… Trump is the last person on earth I will trust my investment idea on… 

just my 2 cents. I think I earn it.

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