To The Moon

OpenAI's Market Sway: Chips or Apps—Who Wins Next?

OpenAI has become the U.S. stock market's top “hype master.” Last week, OpenAI rolled out an “instant purchase” feature inside ChatGPT, sending e-commerce name $Shopify(SHOP)$   and $Etsy(ETSY)$   soaring. On Monday, OpenAI signed an agreement with $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$   —a deal that could deliver tens of billions of dollars in new revenue to AMD—igniting the stock. At the subsequent annual developer conference, merely mentioning other public companies sent their shares jumping, with $Figma Inc (FIG.US)$ up more than 34% this week.

Compute remains the core—who's the next partner?

Recent datapoints highlight a strong outlook for AI compute, as evidenced by an acceleration of AI compute infrastructure collaborations between OpenAI and chip giants.

These transactions center on a “cross-shareholding” model—chip giants secure OpenAI orders via investments or equity commitments, forming a kind of “AI closed-loop economy.”

On October 8, according to TechCrunch, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on a podcast:

"In the coming months, you can expect more (deals like this).”

He explained that, given strong confidence in the company's future model capabilities and the demand they will generate, "we've decided it's time to make a very aggressive infrastructure bet.”

Software ecosystem beneficiaries are emerging

On the software side, OpenAI’s ChatGPT is shifting from a “tool-type app” to an “agent platform,” actively competing in information access (Google), e-commerce (Amazon), and social media (META) scenarios.

This DevDay 2025 release can be summarized in four parts: ChatGPT upgraded into a “super app,” enabling users to invoke third-party apps directly in conversation; introduction of AgentKit for developers to lower the barrier to building AI applications; the coding tool Codex fully opened with multiple new features; and a comprehensive API upgrade, including access to GPT-5 Pro and Sora 2.

Amid this storm of rebuilding the AI entry point, design platform $Figma Inc (FIG.US)$ and Canva, music app $Spotify Technology (SPOT.US)$ , online real-estate company $Zillow-C (Z.US)$ , online travel players $Expedia (EXPE.US)$ and $Booking Holdings (BKNG.US)$, and the online education platform $Coursera (COUR.US)$ became the first batch of launch partners.

Watch the positives and risks on the revenue side

~Consumer-side AI adoption: rapid user growth but lagging monetization

OpenAI reports ChatGPT has reached a record 800 million weekly active users, far outpacing monetization growth. More noteworthy, employees at 90% of companies report regularly using personal AI tools at work, but only 40% of companies have purchased official LLM subscriptions.

Goldman Sachs expects 2026 to be the key year for AI monetization, with the intersection of advertising and commerce driving scale.

~Enterprise AI deployment: internal usage expanding but ROI still needs improvement

At the enterprise level, AI return on investment remains limited. Despite continued expansion of internal deployments, MIT research shows only 5% of companies see measurable income-statement impact from AI. Heavy investments in building, training, and using foundation models have yet to materially permeate enterprises in ways that generate economic returns.

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