To The Moon

The move toward $122K+ for BTC is likely being driven by a mix of factors. It is rarely “all inflows” or “all short squeeze” in isolation.

In this article I would like to share and break down which forces seem to be at play, what evidence supports each, and what that implies going forward.

Evidence for Funds / Real Demand Inflow

These are signs that genuine demand (especially institutional) is pushing BTC higher:

These are fairly strong signals that the rise is not purely “blowoff” — there is real demand and structural support.

Evidence for Short Squeeze / Leverage Liquidations

However, the short squeeze / forced buyback dynamic is also plausibly contributing. Some signals include:

Reports that over $1 billion in short positions have been liquidated recently, which would force buying into the uptrend.

Analysts pointing out that the move toward $122K had a squeeze‐style characteristic (sharp moves, breakouts) rather than slow grind.

The confluence of rising leverage (open interest in futures, derivatives) with price gets traders to “run for cover.” Some pieces argue that the new highs are partially technical reactions rather than purely new demand.

Thus, what looks like a clean break might partly be “crowd reaction to pain trades” — bad for those short.

Which Dominates — Inflow vs Squeeze?

Putting it together, my assessment is:

The primary driver is real demand / capital inflow, especially from institutional / ETF / corporate accumulation. The on-chain and balance trends support a structural tilt upward.

The short squeeze element is acting as an accelerant — it magnifies upward moves, gives the rally bursts of strength, but is unlikely the sole driver for sustaining a multi-week or multi-month upward trend.

In other words: inflows set the runway, and squeezes provide the jet thrust.

If only a short squeeze were acting (without fresh demand), the price would likely struggle to stay elevated once squeeze pressure abates. But with genuine demand underpinning it, the risk of blowoff is mitigated (though not eliminated).

Risks / Caveats to Watch

Leverage is a double-edge sword. If sentiment turns or macro surprises hit, forced liquidations in the reverse direction could accelerate downside.

Overbought technicals. At these levels, many indicators may show exhaustion, so pullbacks are possible even in a bull regime.

Macro / policy flips. If rates stay higher than expected or regulations turn adverse, inflows can dry up quickly.

Resistance zones. There will be key technical resistance levels (e.g. $125K–$130K) where bulls must prove strength.

What to Watch to Test the Thesis

To see whether this is more inflow-driven (durable) or squeeze-driven (fragile), watch these:

Sustained net inflows into ETFs / funds over weeks (not just one week).

Exchange outflows continuing (coins leaving exchanges) — if that reverses, pressure may build.

Price holding above key support zones (e.g. around $120–$122K).

Volume consistency — if surges are accompanied by high volume, not just brief spikes, that’s healthier.

Leverage metrics & open interest — if speculative leverage backs off while price remains strong, that’s a bullish sign.

In the next section, we have tried to build a simple, transparent attribution model. This is how we have done to build the model.

Pulled the recent datapoints from news/analytics we found earlier:

ETF weekly inflows ≈ $3.24B (this week).

Exchange reserves ≈ 2.83M BTC, with ~114k BTC withdrawn in two weeks (Glassnode reporting).

Futures open interest ≈ $88.7B (record high).

Recent short-liquidations order-of-magnitude ≈ $1B (reported across exchanges / media).

Built a simple normalized model:

• Demand score = 0.6 * (ETF inflow normalized to a baseline) + 0.4 * (exchange outflow normalized to a baseline).

• Squeeze score = 0.7 * (futures OI normalized to a baseline) + 0.3 * (recent short liquidations normalized).

• Normalization uses explicit baseline assumptions and caps extreme ratios to avoid runaway values.

• Converted scores to percentage attribution: Demand % vs Squeeze %.

Model output (takeaway)

The model uses the inputs and baseline assumptions described above. Here is the exact numeric attribution and component scores below.

With the inputs used (very strong ETF inflows, large exchange outflows, record futures OI, and meaningful short liquidations), the model attributes a larger portion to structural demand (ETFs + withdrawals) and the remainder to squeeze / leverage — i.e., inflows set the base; leverage amplifies moves.

Important caveats & next steps

This is a simple, transparent prototype meant to illustrate the split. It is not a full econometric or causal model — it uses a small number of aggregate signals and practitioner-chosen weights and baselines. We should treat results as directional / indicative, not definitive.

Baselines & weights are adjustable. If we want a more conservative or more squeeze-sensitive model, it can be re-run with different baselines/weights (we have used explicit placeholder baselines to normalize signals).

We can make it data-driven: connect to Glassnode / CoinGlass / ETF flow time series, compute rolling z-scores or regressions, and produce a time-series attribution (e.g., % demand vs % squeeze each day).

If we want to investigate further, we can add more signals if desired: funding rates, options skew, exchange flow by whale size, OTC desk reports, miner sell rates, stablecoin flows, and regional on-ramps all improve fidelity.

If Bitcoin can sustain above $122K through October 2025, that “risk-on / crypto tailwinds” environment would likely benefit equities that have high leverage to BTC/crypto upside.

Below are several categories of crypto-/blockchain-exposed stocks to watch, along with pros/risks and specific names.

Categories & Rationale

Here are the main business models / exposure types to monitor (and what makes them interesting if BTC stays elevated):

Specific Stocks / Firms to Watch

Below are notable names (U.S.-based and international) that tend to get attention when BTC is rising. They vary in risk, leverage, and business model.

These are plausible candidates to watch.

Relative Attractiveness in a Bull BTC Scenario

If BTC remains strong above $122K, here’s how I’d rank or bias these by “upside potential vs risk”:

Highest leverage plays (big upside, but also big risk)

• MSTR: This one got huge exposure to BTC’s movem­ents. $Strategy(MSTR)$

• MARA / RIOT: Traditional miners with leverage to BTC via coin production + holding. $MARA Holdings(MARA)$ $Riot Platforms(RIOT)$

More moderate / diversified exposure

• COIN: Because it's not pure BTC — trading & services. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$

• GLXY / Galaxy Digital: Part investment bank, trading, etc.

• HIVE: More niche, but good asymmetric play. $HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd(HIVE)$

Emerging / speculative names

• BitFuFu (FUFU)

• OranjeBTC / new treasury SPACs

If BTC is stable or trending up, the “miners + treasury holders” likely capture much of the upside. Exchanges & infrastructure providers can benefit too, but may lag depending on competition or regulation.

What to Watch / Metrics for Signal Strength

To try to filter which of these names is most likely to outperform in this environment, here are indicators to monitor:

• Relative performance vs BTC (how much of BTC’s move is priced into the stock already)

• Balance sheet health / debt / leverage — more debt is a risk in downturns

• Earnings / cash flow sensitivity to BTC price (how “pure” is the exposure)

• Announcements: BTC acquisitions, mining expansion, cost reductions

• Regulation / SEC / legal risks, especially for exchanges or firms domiciled in multiple jurisdictions

• Liquidity / trading volume — smaller names may get squeezed or suffer if sentiment shifts

Summary

Bitcoin's surge to $122K appears to be driven by a powerful combination of institutional fund inflows and a significant short squeeze.

Analysts point to record-breaking, consistent inflows into US Spot Bitcoin ETFs as a major structural driver, signaling strong institutional and long-term investor conviction. Additionally, the move past key resistance levels, like $110K, triggered massive short liquidations—totaling nearly $1 billion recently—creating a forceful short squeeze that accelerated the price to new highs.

While some of the rally aligns with a "digital gold" narrative amid geopolitical tensions and rate-cut hopes (suggesting rotation from safe-haven assets), the primary confirmed catalysts are the sheer volume of ETF demand and the liquidations of leveraged short positions. The market's current momentum is viewed as fundamentally supported, rather than purely a short-term squeeze.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Bitcoin continue above $122k would help to power some of the crypto stocks into new highs.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.