To The Moon

Gold recently reached $3,900 per ounce on COMEX, setting a new all-time high. The metal has climbed for several days, driven largely by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown. Analysts have discussed a $4,000 target, and UBS even suggested that gold could rise to $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, citing its role as a safe-haven asset amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

A potential government shutdown introduces further short-term risk, as it can delay fiscal decisions, create uncertainty about government operations, and raise concerns among investors. In such an environment, gold’s traditional appeal as a store of value becomes more pronounced because in uncertain times, it provides a measure of stability and security.

Despite the rally, I chose not to buy. The move felt driven more by short-term fear and market sentiment. In other words, the recent surge seemed largely driven by sentiment around the potential shutdown rather than changes in gold’s fundamental supply and demand. While gold often benefits from uncertainty, prices can be highly volatile in the short term, and spikes during periods of panic might be followed by corrections once the immediate news passes. I prefer to invest in assets where the underlying drivers such as supply-demand dynamics or earnings growth are clearer and more sustainable. Gold’s appeal as a safe haven doesn’t align with that approach for me, especially at these high levels.

The UBS projection of $4,200 per ounce is interesting, but even if it materializes, timing the market is uncertain. My focus remains on understanding the structural factors behind my investments, rather than chasing momentum. Watching gold climb provides insight into investor behavior during periods of economic uncertainty, but it doesn’t change my investment approach.

Gold’s rally is a reminder of how uncertainty can drive market sentiment and push safe-haven assets to record highs. While the momentum is notable, my decision not to buy reflects a preference for clarity and control over speculation. Observing these developments allows me to appreciate market dynamics without compromising my investment principles.