To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 06Oct25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in Singapore and the USA. China is closed from 1st to 8th October for the Golden Week. Hong Kong will be closed on October 7, 2025, for the Mid-Autumn Festival.

Market Outlook and Key Economic Events

Impending Market Volatility from Economic Data: The upcoming week features several key economic data releases that are anticipated to introduce market volatility.

• Fixed Income Analysis: Investor sentiment following the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision can be gauged by observing the pricing of 10-year Note and 30-year Bond options. Should bond rates continue to rise, a potential shift of capital from stocks and equities toward fixed-income assets is expected.

• Federal Reserve Guidance: Market volatility is also likely to arise from the scheduled address by Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. These documents typically offer forward guidance regarding future interest rate policy.

• Key US Economic Indicators: The market will closely monitor several important economic releases, as a significant deviation from consensus forecasts could influence the Federal Reserve’s stance on future rate actions (hike, pause, or cut):

• Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast is for 223,000.

• Average Hourly Earnings: Forecast is for a 0.3% increase.

• Non-Farm Payrolls (September): Expected to be 51,000.

• Unemployment Rate (September): Forecast is 4.3%.

Data Release Uncertainty: It is important to note that the potential for a government shutdown introduces uncertainty regarding the timely release of these scheduled economic data reports.

Earnings Calendar (06Oct25)

I am interested in the coming earnings for Delta Airlines and Levi’s.

Let's take a deep dive into Delta Air Lines.

The stock price for Delta Air Lines (DAL) has demonstrated strong performance, achieving a 16.19% increase year-over-year.

However, a divergence exists between technical and fundamental analysis:

• Technical Analysis: Based on technical indicators, the current recommendation is a Sell rating.

• Analyst Sentiment: Conversely, a consensus of analyst ratings points to a Strong Buy recommendation. The average price target is set at $70.31, which suggests a potential upside of 22.79% from the current price.

This disparity highlights a need for investors to reconcile short-term technical signals with longer-term fundamental optimism.

Delta Air Lines (DAL) Investment Profile

Valuation

The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for Delta Air Lines stands at 8.3. While this figure appears attractive, suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings, it does not, in isolation, confirm a favourable investment. A comprehensive analysis of financial fundamentals is required.

Revenue and Profitability Trends

DAL has demonstrated substantial revenue growth over the last decade, increasing from $40.7 billion in 2015 to $61.6 billion in 2024.

However, the company’s operating profit has shown a decline from its peak of $7.8 billion in 2015 to $5.9 billion in 2024. Post-2020 (COVID-19 impact), operating profit has not exceeded the $6 billion mark, though a gradual improvement has been observed.

Earnings Performance

Earnings Per Share (EPS) has experienced a modest decline over the period, moving from $5.63 in 2015 to $5.33 in 2024. Furthermore, a 25.7% drop in EPS growth was recorded between 2023 and 2024.

Financial Health Metrics

• Debt-to-Assets Ratio: The company maintains a favourable Debt-to-Assets ratio of 0.3, indicating a healthy level of balance sheet leverage.

• Free Cash Flow (FCF) Margin: The 10-year median FCF margin is 3.5%.

Earnings Forecast and Investment Stance for Delta Air Lines (DAL)

The consensus forecast for the upcoming earnings report projects Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.53 and revenue of $15.04 billion.

While the stock’s current low Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio presents an attractive valuation signal, our investment preference is for Delta Air Lines to demonstrate more robust and consistent growth in both profitability and revenue before initiating a long position. The decision to establish an investment position remains pending stronger fundamental evidence of accelerated earnings and revenue expansion.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (06Oct25)

Technical observations:

• MACD analysis indicates a bullishuptrend.

• The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook.

• Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term.

• The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.21, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods.

Technical analysis on the daily interval strongly supports a Strong Buy rating. This consensus is based on 22 technical indicators signalling a buy, with zero indicators signalling a sell. This alignment suggests significant short-term positive momentum.

Candlestick Trend Analysis

Overall Interpretation (From Grok)

The long-term market trend remains Bullish, supported by strong patterns established earlier in the year which successfully overcame a prior bearish correction. This indicates a robust underlying uptrend, placing the index significantly above its earlier-year lows.

However, the short-term trend is interpreted as Neutral to Bearish. The most recent price action suggests market indecision following a significant rally, hinting at a possible pullback or consolidation. While recent trading showed buying support, momentum appears to be waning, suggesting that investors may be engaging in profit-taking.

Market sentiment is Positive but Cautious. The rally was fueled by gains in key technology stocks and optimism regarding central bank policy. Despite defying historically weak performance for the period, the current price pattern acts as a warning of an imminent pause. Valuation metrics suggest the index may be trading at elevated levels.

Outlook for the Coming Week

The expected movement for the coming period is Neutral to Bearish. The indecisive candlestick formation points toward a likely consolidation or slight pullback.

A sustained decline below the primary support could target a lower level, while a decisive, high-volume break above the key resistance could propel the index toward a new high.

Risks: There is a risk that intensified selling could form a Bearish Engulfing pattern, which would retest the immediate support level or lower. Expect heightened volatility around the release of key economic data (such as the jobs report) and central bank commentary.

Recommendation: Adopt a neutral trading stance for the short term. Monitor the primary support level closely; a breakdown with strong volume would favour a defensive short position toward the lower support target. Conversely, the emergence of a strong bullish candlestick pattern accompanied by increased volume could signal a confirmed continuation of the uptrend toward the resistance level. Daily patterns should be checked for trade confirmation.

This analysis suggests the index is at a critical juncture near its recent peak, indicating a potential short-term pause within a powerful long-term bullish environment.

Combining the above, I recommend a cautionary approach in the coming week, though the indicators are leaning towards a bullish outlook.

News and my thoughts from the past week (06Oct25)

Soybean farmer: I get up one morning, I turn the news on and we gave $20 billion of taxpayer money to Argentina, my competition. And then the Chinese buy $12 or $14 billion worth of soybeans from the Argentinians. - From X user FactPost

In the coming economic challenges, the Federal government’s fiscal mismanagement is going to add to the complications. Money printing, monetary misappropriation, and fraud are funnelling the country into a cocktail of challenges like social and ideological divide, geopolitical tensions, tariffs, military conflicts and more. Let us brace ourselves. What should we do to prepare ourselves as global citizens?

The Mag7 have driven 60% of the S&P 500 gains in 2025. Combined, these firms employ just 1.6m Americans. The logistics, construction, manufacturing, auto, and energy sectors employ 38m Americans and are giving off recession-vibes. These jobs are at risk as the economy deteriorates. The stock market is not the economy. - Craig Fuller

Construction contractors are getting HUNGRY. Everything from framing to painting to roofing to trim carpentry. Talked to a cabinet builder yesterday: “This is the first time in 20 years I’m not on a job and don’t have another job on the schedule.” We’re in a silent recession. - X user Nick Huber

It’s not a silent recession. It’s just that the stock market, Fed, Administration, and Congress are so disconnected from Main Street that they have zero idea that the economy is crumbling. And because of this disconnect, it means that there is no rescue package coming. - Craig Fuller

Fake job postings are 18-40% of what you see listed, according to studies. - 40% of companies posted fake job ads this year (ResumeBuilder, August 2025) - 27.4% of U.S. LinkedIn postings are “ghost jobs”, September 2025) - 18–22% of Greenhouse listings are fake (Quartz, January 2025) - 30% of companies had one or more active ghost job listings at the time (ResumeBuilder, Aug 2025) - Los Angeles leads U.S. cities with 30.5% fake job posts (Entrepreneur analysis, Sep 2025) - Nearly 1 in 3 job postings may be ghost jobs, per multiple analyses (2024-2025) - X user Amanda Goodall

A line graph showing the US National Debt in trillions from 2023 to 2025. The y-axis ranges from $36.3 to $37.9 trillion, and the x-axis marks dates from 7/14/23 to 10/1/25. A blue line tracks the debt increase, with a red dashed line indicating a $1.7 trillion rise from July 3, 2025, to October 1, 2025. Text overlays include "$36.3" at the start, "$37.9" at the peak, and "$1.7 Trillion increase (July 3, 2025 to October 1, 2025)". A watermark reads "Creative Planning @CharlieBilello".

The US National Debt has increased by $1.7 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised just 3 months ago. - Charlie Bilello

US employers have already cut nearly 1 million jobs this year, the largest number of layoffs since 2020, per MorePerfectUnion

BREAKING: “Serious” credit card delinquencies hit highest level in 14 years. - Polymarket

54% of Americans, down from 60% in 2021, have a positive opinion of capitalism, while a steady 39% view socialism positively, per Gallup.

A scatter plot chart showing labor costs as a percentage of revenues on the y-axis (0% to 40%) and exposure to automation by AI on the x-axis (0% to 42%). Dots represent industries like Software & Services, Consumer Staples, Pharma, Banks, and Utilities, with labels indicating specific sectors such as Goldman Sachs and Russell 1000.

AI exposure by industry - by Goldman Sachs

Only 35% of Americans now consider college “very important,” down from 53% in 2019 and 75% in 2010, per Gallup.

This is one of the MOST EXPENSIVE markets in history: The S&P 500 is OVERVALUED on 19 of 20 valuation metrics, according to BofA. S&P 500 Market Cap/GDP is now 163% ABOVE its historical avg. For Shiller P/E, the index is 116% ABOVE the avg. - X user Global Markets Investor

Elon Musk sitting in a crowd, looking downward with a serious expression. The image includes a watermark from Getty Images.

For the first time in two decades, China bought no soybeans from the United States for two consecutive months and, more importantly, has no orders in for the coming peak season. - Forbes

Black background with white text reading "AI Data Centers Are Sending Power Bills Soaring" in large font. Below, smaller text states "Wholesale electricity costs as much as 267% more than it did five years ago in areas near data centers. That\'s being passed on to customers." No additional visible elements.

My Investing Muse (06Oct25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

A bar chart displaying employers\' planned job additions in the US from 2011 to 2025, with data points for each September. Green bars vary in height, representing the number of jobs, with the y-axis labeled up to 1,000,000 and the x-axis showing years. The 2025 bar is notably low. Text overlay reads "Employers in US Dial Back Hiring Intentions, Planned job additions were the weakest for any September since 2011" and includes the Bloomberg watermark.

• Auto Parts Supplier First Brands Group Bankruptcy’s Spells Potential Trouble for Loads of People Who Own a Car, Truck, or SUV - MotorTrend

• NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Two auto sector bankruptcies have rattled parts of the U.S. credit market, raising concerns about a deterioration in the financial health of low-income households and migrant communities.

A 3D rendering of the U.S. Capitol building with a red sign in front displaying "Sorry We\'re Closed" in white text.

• The U.S. government has now officially shut down, marking its first shutdown since 2019. Imagine explaining to another country: “Yeah, we just… turn it off sometimes. - Stock Market News

• BREAKING: Exxon is cutting 2,000 jobs. That’s 3–4% of its entire workforce. We are just about at my Supermajors job cuts prediction for the year. BP 4700 +contractors Chevron 9000 announced Exxon 2000 Plus we have Imperial 1000 just announced Hess 575 ConocoPhillips 2500-3200 Halliburton (numbers still coming in) - X user Amanda Goodall

• MILAN, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Stellantis has slashed nearly 10,000 jobs in Italy in the past four years, while vehicle production, including vans and small trucks, more than halved since 2004, the Fiom-Cgil union reported on Monday.

• WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - More than 150,000 federal employees will leave the U.S. government payroll this week after accepting buyouts - the largest single-year exodus of civil servants in nearly 80 years, triggering what unions and governance experts warn is a damaging loss of institutional expertise.

• Imperial Oil (Canada) is planning to slash about 20 per cent of its workforce by the end of 2027 as part of a restructuring plan. That would affect about 1,000 jobs, based on an employee count of 5,100 as of Dec. 31 of 2024. - Castanet

• Starbucks announced that the company would be closing about 1% of its North America stores by the end of the quarter, ending the fiscal year with 18,300 Starbucks cafes in the U.S. and in Canada. Starbucks should close 434 locations by the end of Q4. - Yahoo News

• Walmart plans to maintain a headcount of around 2.1 million workers across the world over the next three years, though the mix of these jobs are expected to change, Walmart’s chief people officer Donna Morris said, according to The Journal. - Yahoo Finance

• Exxon Mobil will lay off 2,000 workers globally, particularly in Canada and across the European Union, as part of a long-term restructuring plan that will affect about 3% to 4% of the company’s workforce. About 1,200 positions will be cut in Norway and the EU by the end of 2027. - Reuters 30Sep25

• US government shutdown to furlough 41% of health agency workers | Reuters

• Deloitte has slashed hiring and cut back on promotions for its most senior staff as it warned an economic slowdown was harming UK investment. The accountancy giant has reduced the number of new recruits joining the firm and promoted fewer managers to partner level amid “continued economic headwinds”. - Telegraph

The unemployment rate for 16-24 year-olds is now at 10.5%, per Bloomberg

A key difference between 1998-99 and today is back then the US was adding 250,000 jobs per month and in Q4 2025 it might be zero - X user Conor Sen

Is this sustainable?

Other indicators for a recession

Truck sales are collapsing. Which almost always means a recession has already started. - X user Spencer Hakimian

A chart displaying the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average from 1998 to 2023. Two line graphs show price movements, with the Industrial Average in black and the Transportation Average in blue. Red and green arrows indicate key points, and text annotations highlight highs, lows, and divergences. A watermark from ShitMyChartSays is visible.

Dow Theory Crash Indicator: Every single major crash over the last 100 years had the same setup: DJIA hit a new high, but the transports failed to do the same (1929, 1937, 1966-1975, 1987, 2000, 2007, 2020). And when transports fail to confirm the DJIA high, the wheels come off the bus and all equities veer offroad and Thelma & Louise it off the nearest cliff. Why do I mention this? Well, low and behold, you`ll see the chart shows that`s it`s precisely where we are today...DJIA hit another ATH but transports have failed to reach their own new high, after last setting one in February. Transports currently sit 4% below that mark. Bulls with net long equity positions are very likely picking up pennies in front of a freight train barreling down the tracks. Do you feel lucky? (Spoiler: Your answer is no) - X user Sh!tmychartsays

My final thoughts

Institutional investors are cashing in gains: Investors sold -$4.7 billion of US equities last week, driven by single stocks. Outflows from single stocks rose by $500 million, to -$5.7 billion, making the last 2-week outflow the 3rd-largest since 2008. This was led by institutional investors who dumped -$3.6 billion, the most since June, after -$1.4 billion in the prior week. Hedge funds sold -$1.3 billion, posting their 3rd consecutive weekly outflow. Meanwhile, retail investors turned to buying for the first time in four weeks, at +$200 million. Wall Street is selling to Main Street again. - The Kobeissi Letter

I recommend caution as Wall Street is selling to Main Street over the last 2 weeks.

Main Street can end up falling with a Wall Street rug pull, holding the bags of overvalued stocks in our arms. Avoid leverage, as our pain can compound much more than our gains.

When a government shuts down, there will be a loss or decline in some functionality, even though key functions remain active.

This brings uncertainty both domestically and internationally. Different theories have surfaced concerning the reasons, and one of the “feeds” includes a reduction in the federal workforce. This erodes the country's reliability and professionalism, potentially leaving citizens and partners stranded.

Finger-pointing is normal in politics. Yet the citizens and partners should not be paying a “higher” price. When people feel let down by the system, they begin to consider alternative systems (outside of democracy and capitalism). Fundamental shifts are coming, and there will be a potential tipping point. Change can come voluntarily or be forced.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$Delta Air Lines(DAL)$

$Levi Strauss & Co(LEVI)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$