Ten-million-dollar blocks betting on a market quake—will a black swan hit before year-end?
@OptionsDelta:
$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Unusual options activity flagged a scary VIX call block: 160,000 contracts bought of the Nov 19 expiry 32 calls $VIX 20251119 32.0 CALL$ , roughly $13M in premium. Honestly, I’m puzzled by this bearish macro bet. With AI-led growth still blazing, it’s hard to imagine the kind of shock that would deliver a fatal blow to U.S. equities right now. After thinking it through, the most plausible angle is political: Trump trying to buy AI stocks on the cheap—manufactured panic isn’t a zero-probability event. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Not a great time to be selling calls—price looks set to make a run at 210. Feels like the market’s reacting late, as if analysts published notes and only then did the tape catch up. Two sizeable OTM call buys at the top end point to a 200 target for October: $NVDA 20251017 210.0 CALL$ $NVDA 20251010 200.0 CALL$ . There’s also a notable October 24 sell-put block $NVDA 20251024 180.0 PUT$ . $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ Ripped on a compute-supply deal with META. Intraday action is unstable—deep shakeout underway. On Monday, a deep ITM call block opened: 4,500 of the 105 calls $CRWV 20251219 105.0 CALL$ , about $14.26M notional. $PayPal(PYPL)$ Volume spiked—about 5.9x the daily average. Spotted several bullish call openings: $PYPL 20260116 80.0 CALL$ $PYPL 20260320 90.0 CALL$ $PYPL 20251031 75.0 CALL$ . News check: AI-related collaboration with Google and a payments agreement. There may be more positives to come—worth monitoring for follow-through. $Etsy(ETSY)$ Jumped 16% on an OpenAI partnership headline, but key question remains: when does it translate to revenue? No objective data showing large conversions, so shares faded. No meaningful long-dated call participation yet—needs more observation. Current levels are suitable for sell puts; consider the 64 strike $ETSY 20251003 64.0 PUT$ . $Shopify(SHOP)$ Same issue as ETSY. Reverting to a 140–150 chop range. $Intel(INTC)$ Option flows imply no imminent partnership headlines; stock likely ranges 30–40. One player even opened a lottery-ticket downside bet to 24.5 $INTC 20251024 24.5 PUT$ , but the premium is tiny—functionally a punt. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Strong—long-term bullish. HOOD often likes to break dealer-implied ranges and shake out shorts. On Monday, the expected weekly strangle zone was 137–126 $HOOD 20251003 137.0 CALL$ $HOOD 20251003 126.0 PUT$ . And then it ripped—so far Tuesday’s 143 intraday high looks like the week’s resistance. Bullish openings suggest a steady march toward 150. Dips are good for sell puts; consider the 130 strike $HOOD 20251003 130.0 PUT$ .
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