To The Moon

That is a sharp observation — October has indeed carried a reputation for volatility, yet its behaviour often defies simple seasonal averages. Let us consider the current setup from three lenses: macro, technical, and positioning.

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1. Macro & Sentiment Context

Despite widespread expectations for a September or early-October pullback, liquidity conditions have stayed loose. Fed rhetoric has tilted dovish-neutral, while real yields eased modestly.

Corporate buybacks resumed after blackout periods, and economic data—particularly from U.S. consumers and labour markets—remains resilient rather than overheating.

Put simply, there is no hard macro trigger for a deep correction unless inflation re-accelerates or bond yields spike above 5% again.

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2. Technical Structure

The S&P 500 (SPX) has advanced roughly 13% YTD, still lagging the 2023 pace. Breadth improved in September, with industrials and small caps finally confirming the breakout.

Short-term momentum is stretched: RSI readings near 70 and the index about 6–7% above its 50-day average often precede 1–3 week consolidations.

If SPX retests 5,500 – 5,550, minor profit-taking would be healthy. A break below 5,400 could trigger algo selling toward 5,250 – 5,300, equating to a 3–5 % pullback—still within a bull trend.

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3. Positioning & Probability Map

Scenario Description Probability (approx.)

Continued Rally Momentum + earnings optimism push SPX toward new highs (≈5,600–5,700). 35 %

Mild Pullback Consolidation of 3–5 % to reset sentiment; buyers re-enter. 45 %

Larger Correction Macro shock or yield spike triggers 8–10 % drawdown. 20 %

My base case is a mild pullback—enough to cool sentiment but not derail the uptrend.

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4. September Movers Recap

TSLA (+32%) — re-rating ahead of Q3 deliveries; extremely momentum-driven.

NVDA (+15%) — flows into AI theme, though valuations remain rich.

AAPL (+9%) — post-event rebound as iPhone and AI integration buzz returned.

BABA (+12%) — relief rally on China policy support and cloud optimism.

I participated mainly through NVDA and BABA, trimming exposure into late September strength while keeping a hedge via SPY puts for October seasonality.

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🎯 My Outlook

> Expect a brief consolidation early October, possibly triggered by hot CPI or Treasury supply, before a year-end rally resumes into November’s earnings and Fed meeting.