Sep. Rally, October Continues or Crash? Is This Bull Still Young?
As the market hit new highs, many expected a correction in September or October. But clearly, we just went through yet another bullish month. Historically, September has been the worst month for $S&P 500(.SPX)$.
The fact is: this September, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained +3.11%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +5.39%. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ hit fresh all-time highs, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $Alibaba(BABA)$ jumped over 30%, while $Apple(AAPL)$ staged a big rebound. Other star stocks included $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ , $Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ , and $TeraWulf Inc.(WULF)$ .
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So what about October?
Historically, October has been red in 10 of the last 15 years, making it its weakest month on record. Yet last year, after a strong first-half rally, October only saw a minor pullback—SPX down just 0.99%. This year SPX is up 13.25% YTD, still far behind last year’s 20% YTD by September.
J.P. Morgan highlighted in a September report that the stock market could have “explosive” upside potential in October and advised investors to buy the dips.
Another major driver for the bull case: rate cuts. According to CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 90% probability of a 25bps rate cut in October.
Still, some expect October to follow a “gap down, grind higher” script. The first trading days of both August and September were big red days—will October repeat the same pattern?
Howard Marks wrote in his latest memo:
“Investors are inherently optimistic. They must be—otherwise they wouldn’t hand their money over in hopes of getting more in return. Stock investors in particular, I believe, are deeply rooted optimists.”
Do you consider yourself an optimist?
Are you betting on October to keep rallying, just a small pullback, or a bigger correction?
In September, did you catch any of the big movers—TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, BABA?
Have you managed to beat the market this year?
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For October, I know it’s historically weak, but I lean a bit optimistic. With the Fed likely to cut rates and liquidity still supportive, I expect more of a “gap down, grind higher” move rather than a sharp correction. Volatility may spike early, but unless macro data disappoints, dips could still be worth buying.
Still, I’m keeping flexible. Markets have priced in plenty of good news, so I won’t chase highs blindly. My plan is to lock profits when rallies stretch and add exposure only on meaningful pullbacks. Optimistic—but disciplined—sums up my approach.
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I expect a small correction in October as people take profit but also expecting a potential rate cut that would send the bull going. The bull is still young all because there is still Penney of room for rate cuts to happen this year and the next.
I already have AAPL and recently bought UnitedHealth. Otherwise, I tend to have ETFs like SMH and VTI. I believe there is more room for rally in the HK and China markets so I have been buying the dips in the HK market like haidilao and popmart.
I think I have beaten the market this year with my combination of ETFs and some good performing stocks like taking profit for maogeping as well. This should be a good year for most as it is hard to go wrong.
摩根大通在9月份的報告中強調，10月份股市可能有“爆炸性”上漲潛力，並建議投資者逢低買入.
牛市的另一個主要驅動因素：降息根據CME FedWatch工具，有一個90%概率10月份降息25個基點。
事實是：今年9月，$標普500(.SPX)$獲得+3.11%,$納斯達克(.IXIC)$+5.39%.$英偉達(NVDA)$再創歷史新高，$特斯拉(TSLA)$和$阿里巴巴-SW(BABA)$跳過去30%，而$蘋果(AAPL)$上演了一波大反彈。其他明星股票包括在內$奧克洛公司(OKLO)$,$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$，和$TeraWulf Inc.(WULF)$.
策略思路偏向逢回调布局龙头（科技/AI/消费稳定）。谨慎高位不宜追高，可加一点防御板块（医疗、必需消费、黄金） @Tiramisu2020
With this approach, I can beat the market easily..
至于10月的行情，我的判断是会有回调，但幅度不会太大。过去几年，10月往往是市场寻找方向的月份，大跌的概率低于市场想象。结合目前利率环境趋稳、科技板块依然热度不减，我更倾向于“震荡加小幅回调”，而不是大规模崩盘。
9月份，我确实在重点跟踪几只大公司。TSLA波动很大，消息面刺激频繁，适合短线操作；AAPL受新品发布和服务收入增长支撑，走势相对稳健；NVDA毫无疑问依旧是AI故事的核心，基本面亮眼；BABA则更多受政策和宏观经济影响。相比之下，我更愿意在NVDA和AAPL上持有，因为趋势更清晰，风险相对可控。
至于今年的整体表现，我不能说自己大幅跑赢市场，但至少算是稳稳跟上节奏，没有被过度回调拖累。某些板块比如半导体和科技股给我带来了不错的回报，这让我更坚定保持适度乐观的态度。
I lean realistic optimist — I expect volatility, but over time markets tend to grind higher.
2. October outlook?
Most likely a rally continuation with shallow pullbacks—unless macro surprises (Fed, jobs, geopolitics) trigger a sharper correction.
3. September movers?
The big trades were TSLA swings, AAPL dip-buy chatter, NVDA’s momentum, and BABA’s China policy bounce. Even if you didn’t catch them all, just one could’ve been a strong win.
4. Beating the market YTD?
If you were overweight tech/AI or played the rebounds smartly, beating the S&P has been doable. But a broad, index-style portfolio is still tough to outperform consistently.