To The Moon

After three consecutive days of decline, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finally rebounded on Friday. The market seems unable to fall further, but it also lacks strong upward momentum. Rate cut expectations and $Apple(AAPL)$ rebound may support the market. But the high valuations makes it vulnerable. $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ new high also means market is concerning about possible risks.

Would you choose an Iron Condor on $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$?

The Iron Condor is a non-directional options strategy, typically used in sideways markets with low volatility to profit from time decay.

It consists of four option legs—selling a put and a call near the current price, while buying a put and a call further away as protection.

• Max profit: when the underlying closes between the two short strikes, all options expire worthless, and you keep the net premium.

• Max loss: if the price rises or falls too much and breaches either protective leg, the loss is limited to (strike spread – premium).

Example (SPY ≈ 661):

• Sell 664 Call

• Buy 667 Call (upside protection)

• Sell 658 Put

• Buy 655 Put (downside protection)

Max profit: SPY closes between 658 – 664 (ideally near 661, with no movement). All options expire worthless → net premium collected is profit.

Max loss: If SPY > 667 (big rally) → loss = 3 – premium; If SPY < 655 (big drop) → loss = 3 – premium

You can use multi-leg function on Tiger Trade app:

Apart from the index repeatedly hitting new highs, Intel has been the biggest story recently.

This week, $Intel(INTC)$ stock surged ~15% on reports that it is seeking investment from Apple.

Would you chase or take profit of $Intel(INTC)$?

Data shows Intel’s 3-month options implied volatility spiked to the highest level since April’s tariff-driven selloff. But investors weren’t hedging against downside risk—they were buying calls to profit from further upside.

If you’re already holding Intel shares and unsure whether to take profits, would you consider selling covered calls?

• If the stock doesn’t rally past your target, you still collect premium.

• Based on Black–Scholes, this week’s expected closing range for Intel is $31–$40.

• If no fresh cooperation news emerges, you could sell the weekly 40 Call.

• If you fear further surprises, set a higher strike.

If you remain bullish—or don’t hold shares yet—you might choose a Bull Call Spread instead of buying calls outright.

• Bull Call Spread: Buy a lower strike call, sell a higher strike call.

• Limits cost and risk; profit is capped if price exceeds the higher strike.

Market stats (weekly expiry):

• Put/Call ratio = 0.41

• IV/HV = 86.96% → Despite Intel’s rally, the market does not expect volatility to expand further.

• Active strikes are clustered in 35–36 Calls:

  • 35C (Delta 0.579, OI 62,779, +37.7%)

  • 36C (Delta 0.469, OI 34,730, +27.8%).

Technical view: Price broke above the upper Bollinger Band (33.93), entering an accelerated uptrend.

So this week, what’s your move?

a) Bet on the index staying range-bound with an Iron Condor on SPY?

b) Lock in profits or chase Intel’s momentum?

c) Focus on your portfolio and stocks

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