To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

From the put open interest, there’s strong expectation of a pullback this week—some are targeting $150$ as the floor, but I think $160$ is a more realistic level.

Call option flow is similar to last week: sell the $180$ call ($NVDA 20250926 180.0 CALL$ ) to hedge long $185$ and $187.5$ calls ($NVDA 20250926 185.0 CALL$ , $NVDA 20250926 187.5 CALL$ ).

Despite the pullback expectations, the highest win-rate strategy at these levels remains selling calls.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Overall price action mirrors last week, but the downside pressure is less intense.

Institutional call selling is focused on the $435$–$437.5$ strikes ($TSLA 20250926 435.0 CALL$ ), hedged with long $457.5$ and $460$ calls ($TSLA 20250926 457.5 CALL$ , $TSLA 20250926 460.0 CALL$ ). For call selling, you can consider strikes above $460$.

On the put side, there’s open interest in the $425$ and $410$ puts ($TSLA 20250926 425.0 PUT$ , $TSLA 20250926 410.0 PUT$ ). This week, TSLA could pull back below $425$ but hold above $410$. If it drops below $425$, it could be a good spot to sell puts.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

There’s an expectation of a pullback toward $640$—a move of less than 3% would be tolerable. But, as always, predictions are tough. Good luck to the bears.

$Apple(AAPL)$

This week there are various spread structures centered around the $252.5$ call ($AAPL 20250926 252.5 CALL$ ). But the key takeaway is a massive buy in the year-end $265$ call ($AAPL 20251219 265.0 CALL$ )—14,000 contracts opened.

$Intel(INTC)$

The direct benefit of NVIDIA’s investment in Intel is the cash infusion. The indirect benefit is that it could trigger follow-on deals from other firms.

Otherwise, in the absence of short-term revenue catalysts, it’s tough to justify the big bullish bets—bulls expect the stock to rebound above $35$ but below $40$ this year.

The bear case is simple: if there’s no continued good news, INTC will drift back toward $25$.

The top OI increase was a large straddle: long the $35$ call and $25$ put ($INTC 20251017 35.0 CALL$ , $INTC 20251121 25.0 PUT$ ), betting on a major move in either direction.

$Micron Technology(MU)$

Earnings are after the close Tuesday. With shares at $162.5$, options are pricing in a 10% earnings move—implying a $146$–$179$ range.

Interestingly, most call sellers are picking the $195$ or $200$ strikes ($MU 20251010 195.0 CALL$ , $MU 20251003 200.0 CALL$ ). That seems excessive.

Put flows are more conservative and within the implied range; for a cautious earnings volatility short, consider selling puts below $145$ ($MU 20250926 145.0 PUT$ ).

I would not recommend selling calls here—despite strong DRAM/NAND markets having partially priced in good news, the market could still be underestimating upside. There’s a nonzero chance of an earnings blowout.

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$

Detected a large long-dated bullish position: 6,498 contracts of the $220$ call ($CRWV 20260320 220.0 CALL$ ) were opened, with an estimated notional value of $5M.