To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 22Sep25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in Singapore, the USA, Hong Kong and China.

Global Economic Forecasts and Market Volatility

Economic Indicators

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is projected at 51.8, while the S&P Global Services PMI is at 53.8, both forecasts indicating an expansion in their respective global sectors.

Upcoming Market Events

Several key events and data releases are expected to influence market volatility.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech is anticipated to impact market sentiment.

• New home sales and existing home sales data will provide insights into the real estate market.

• Durable goods orders are forecast to decrease by 0.4%.

• The PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, will be released on Friday and is a key factor for future interest rate decisions.

• The Q2 GDP is expected to be 3.3%. Any deviation from this forecast could lead to market volatility.

Labour Market Health

Finally, the report on Initial Jobless Claims should be monitored closely. This data point is a vital reference for assessing the overall health of the economy and is another factor that the Federal Reserve considers when determining its interest rate policy.

Crude oil inventories are an item to monitor. A higher-than-expected inventory level can raise concerns about oil demand.

Earnings Calendar (22Sep25)

I am interested in the earnings from Micron, Accenture, Costco, BlackBerry and Jabil.

BlackBerry Financial and Stock Performance Analysis

Financial Highlights

BlackBerry has demonstrated a significant turnaround in its financial performance. The company's revenue has decreased from $2.1 billion in 2016 to $535 million in 2025. However, it has successfully transitioned from a substantial operating loss of $458 million in 2016 to a positive operating profit of $13 million in 2025, indicating improved operational efficiency and a successful shift in business strategy.

Stock and Technical Outlook

The stock has shown strong momentum, with a year-over-year price increase of over 76%. Technical analysis suggests a "strong buy" recommendation, further supported by the company's strong debt-to-asset ratio of 0.2, which is better than the industry-standard "good" range of 0.3 to 0.6. This low ratio highlights a healthy balance sheet and minimal leverage.

Analyst consensus forecasts for BlackBerry's upcoming earnings report project an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.01 on revenue of $120.06 million.

Given the above data, I prefer to monitor the stock for now. Now that the company has achieved breakeven, I prefer a longer trend of increased revenue and profitability.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (22Sep25)

Technical observations:

• MACD analysis indicates a bullish uptrend. However, it is important to note that a continuation of the prior downtrend remains a possibility, and this signal should be confirmed with other indicators.

• The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook.

• Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term.

• The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.30, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods.

The technical analysis has a “Strong Buy” recommendation for the S&P500. 21 indicators recommend a “Buy” rating, and there are none with a “Sell” rating.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week

• Short-Term Outlook: The S&P 500 is likely to trend bearish into the week if selling pressure continues. A neutral scenario could emerge if the price stabilised with a bullish pattern (e.g., Morning Star) and volume indicating a bottom.

• Actionable Insight: Maintain a bearish bias. A break below with high volume; a bounce with a bullish candle and rising volume could signal a reversal.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook with a bearish long-term trend, indicating continued correction unless a bullish reversal forms at key support levels.

News and my thoughts from the past week (22Sep25)

The Fed cuts rates, and mortgage rates go up - The Maverick of Wall Street

The Top 1% of U.S. earners now have more wealth than the entire middle class - BarChart

U.S. Dollar has now lost more than 10% of its value this year - BarChart

Recent survey of Harvard students, by @TheFIREorg

There is a baseline for morality. When violence becomes a viable option due to differing opinions, have we lost our moral compass?

My Investing Muse (22Sep25)

Layoffs & Closure news

There is a HUGE disconnect between Job Openings and the market

New survey conducted by Resume.org

• What happens after Trump’s clampdown on H1-B visas? US companies will try to move offices to India. If the US gov tries to kill outsourcing, then India-US relations will go downhill fast. At that point, India will be forced to develop its own IT or switch to Chinese infrastructure. Lots of turmoil ahead. - X user S.L. Kanthan

• Layoffs announced in Germany, past 12 months: • Volkswagen: 35,000 • Mercedes-Benz: 40,000 • Audi: 7,500 • Ford: 2,900 • Daimler Truck: 5,000 • ZF Group: 14,000 • Bosch, Continental, Schaeffler (combined): 7,000 German economy is not in a crisis, it’s imploding. - X user Michael. A Arouet

These are some of the layoffs & closures which were announced in the past week. It appears that unemployment and layoffs continue to trend in a worrisome direction.

Jobs at stake?

I came across the above post on what jobs are at risk. Depending on the innovation and AI adoption, will the job loss be expedited or delayed?

Other indicators for recession?

Sales of heavy trucks are falling which has predicted U.S. recessions. What this means: Almost every single item you own was on a truck at some point. And when companies that ship goods, from Amazon to Walmart, stop buying fleets of new trucks, it's a huge red flag. When sales collapse like this, it means the smart money sees an economic slowdown coming and are cutting back on major investments to prepare for it. Translation: It is one of the clearest, most forward-looking indicators of business confidence we have. Truck sales typically peak 6-12 months before recessions hit. We're seeing the collapse now, which suggests economic in early 2026. Do you realize what's happening? - X user Andrew Lokenauth

The rise and fall of empires. The US is at stage 17. - X user Richard

Where do you think America is? Where is our own country?

The cost of American electricity is going up - isn’t this inflationary? - Source: FRED

Is America leaning closer to a recession? The above indicators can be successful in “predicting” recession, but let us rely on more indicators. Recession is a “normal” part of a healthy business cycle. In fact, recessions are great opportunities for accumulating great assets at good discounts. Let us start to qualify great companies and set up target prices with a good margin of safety.

A recession can take a long time to come. However, with more recession “noises”, let us consider some hedging going forward.

China orders top tech firms to halt Nvidia AI chip purchases

A webpage screenshot from MKT News.com. The title reads "China Orders Top Tech Firms to Halt Nvidia AI Chip Purchases." The text includes details about China\'s internet regulator and companies like Nvidia, ByteDance, and Alibaba. A QR code is visible at the bottom.

China Orders Top Tech Firms to Halt Nvidia AI Chip Purchases - FT China’s internet regulator has ordered the country’s largest tech firms to halt all purchases of Nvidia’s AI chips and cancel existing orders, as Beijing intensifies efforts to develop its domestic semiconductor industry and compete with the US. The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) instructed companies including ByteDance and Alibaba this week to stop testing and ordering the RTX Pro 6000D, Nvidia’s China-specific product launched two months ago, according to sources. Several firms had planned to order tens of thousands of the RTX Pro 6000D and had begun testing with Nvidia’s server suppliers, but were told to cease after the CAC directive. The ban is stricter than prior guidance, which targeted Nvidia’s H20 chip, also used widely for AI in China. Beijing is pushing Chinese tech companies to reduce reliance on Nvidia to achieve an independent semiconductor supply chain for AI competitiveness. “The message is now loud and clear,” said an executive at one of the companies. “Earlier, there were hopes of renewed Nvidia supply if geopolitics improved. Now, all efforts are focused on building a domestic system.” - FT

Which means that, in less than 3 years, we've gone from the US banning chip exports to China to restrict its development, to China banning US chip imports because they now have their own. Easily one of the biggest policy f*ckups of the past few years. I still remember how some people 3 years ago predicted that the export controls meant that "China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry was reduced to zero overnight. Complete collapse. No chance of survival" (look it up). When the truth is that it's the best thing the Americans could ever have done to turbocharge it. - X user Arnaud Bertrand

When a country is pushing a political agenda over business matters, it can cripple or accelerate technological developments. What else will be affected? What other businesses will be affected? What will happen when countries play the “nationalist” card - to boycott products from certain countries? Eventually, countries will work out alternatives.

My final thoughts

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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