To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Markets are reeling from the Fed's mixed signals— a 25bps cut to 4.00%-4.25% screams dovish relief for a cooling jobs scene, with downside employment risks front and center, yet the dot plot flashes hawkish vibes as inflation projections edge up to sticky 3.1% core levels. Powell's crew dials in labor worries over price pressures, but the "risk management" pivot leaves traders split: is this the spark for a soft landing or a stealth warning on persistent heat? Dissent from Miran pushing for a bolder 50bps slice adds drama, while futures scream 94% odds for an October follow-up. Buckle up—this isn't your grandma's easing cycle; it's a high-wire act balancing slowdown fears against tariff-fueled fire.

Zooming in on cuts: projections point to two more 25bps dips by year-end, with nine officials betting on a total trio for 2025 and six holding pat for zero extras. That's a narrow bull case for deeper easing if jobs keep softening—unemployment at 4.3%, gains sputtering— but hawkish holdouts eye elevated prices refusing to budge fully to that 2% holy grail. If data rolls weak (think subpar CPI or payroll bombs), expect the Fed to lean aggressive; stronger prints? They dial back, keeping policy neutral and yields grinding higher. Either way, this fuels volatility gold, with bonds dumping and long-term costs spiking—big players aren't buying the fix-all narrative just yet.

S&P 500's wild ride? Post-cut chop saw it flip green then slip 0.1% to around 6,600, but the setup screams upside thrust: rate relief juices liquidity, tech beasts like Nasdaq beasts feast on lower borrowing, and historical patterns shout blow-off tops before any recession whispers. Bears growl overbought, citing yield curve twists and stagflation shadows, but bulls counter with empire state plunges signaling more Fed ammo incoming. Short-term dip to 6,400 support? Possible nerve-test, but momentum's unbroken—golden crosses, whale buys, and autonomy hype from adjacent sectors push for a parabolic surge. Target? Smash past 6,700 in weeks, eyeing 7,000 by Q1 2026 if cuts cascade without inflation backlash. Energy pivots and AI catalysts? Undervalued rockets turning this into a trillion-dollar beast mode.

Yes, new highs are in play amid cuts—easing cycles historically propel equities 15-20% higher in the first leg, especially with GDP ticking up to 1.6%. Don't dump yet; trim edges if leveraged, but core holds ride the wave. Overleveraged? Cash a sliver for peace, but FOMO hits harder missing the breakout. Fed's lost some grip on long rates, but that's bearish bonds, bullish risk-on—position for the liquidity flood.

For the surge visuals, here's a quick plot of S&P's September daily closes spotting the post-FOMC flip:

Key watches: 6600 flips support, 6700 gap next, then all-time test. Risk-on crew, this is your launchpad—stall or soar

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