To The Moon

Google Recap

• As of this post, Google is up 18% in September and 33% year-to-date.

• The major antitrust suit against Google still has 1–2 years to resolve, but the impact is expected to be limited.

• Google Cloud demand is surging thanks to Gemini’s success—65% of Google Cloud customers are now using its AI tools.

• Gemini recently overtook all other tracked AI sites for traffic, moving from #2 to #1.

• Google Cloud now has 13 product lines generating over $1B in annual revenue.

Microsoft Recap

• As of this post, Microsoft is up 1.7% in September and 21% year-to-date.

• Microsoft disclosed that Copilot now has 100 million monthly active users.

• 70% of Fortune 500 companies are heavy Copilot users. Within the M365 suite, Copilot is the fastest-growing product.

• Copilot is showing 20–30% productivity gains in test groups.

• Recent feedback: Azure is currently capacity-constrained, with demand outstripping supply, but long-term demand signals remain robust.

Analysis

• Google’s standout strength is Gemini’s growth momentum, helping defend against emerging AI competitors.

• Watch for Q3 updates on Gemini’s daily active users—acceleration here is key.

• Microsoft Azure’s revenue growth for the next several quarters will be capped by supply constraints.

• Copilot’s adoption curve and real-world productivity impacts are impressive.

• Both are AI platform giants, but after two months of sideways action, Microsoft may attract fresh capital rotation.

Trade Strategy

• AI demand remains strong—both $MSFT$ and $GOOGL$ are suited for conservative bullish strategies.

• If you’re bullish on Microsoft’s October earnings, consider selling out-of-the-money puts to ride the upside with limited risk.

• If you want Google exposure but fear buying at highs, sell out-of-the-money puts for a moderate bullish stance.

• If you already hold Google stock, you can generate yield by selling out-of-the-money covered calls during this phase.

Example Strikes & Expirations

• MSFT Covered Call: $MSFT 20250919 525.0 CALL$  (87% win rate)

• MSFT Sell Put: $MSFT 20250926 497.5 PUT$  (80% win rate)

• GOOGL Covered Call: $GOOGL 20250919 260.0 CALL$  (83% win rate)

• GOOGL Sell Put: $GOOGL 20250926 240.0 PUT$  (81% win rate)

Strategy Details

• Covered Call on MSFT:
  Hold 100 shares of Microsoft and sell 1 contract of the $MSFT 20250919 525.0 CALL$ .
  You pocket the option premium. If MSFT is below $525$ at expiration, the call expires worthless and the premium is your profit. If it closes above $525$, you still keep the premium, but your 100 shares are called away at $525$.

• Sell Put on MSFT:
  Selling the $MSFT 20250926 497.5 PUT$  requires minimum margin of about $11,400 (subject to change).
  If MSFT is above $497.5$ at expiry, the put expires worthless and you keep the premium. If below $497.5$, you keep the premium but must buy 100 shares at a net cost of $497.5$ minus the premium received.

• Covered Call on GOOGL:
  Hold 100 shares of Google and sell 1 contract of the $GOOGL 20250919 260.0 CALL$ .
  If GOOGL is below $260$ at expiry, you keep the premium. If above $260$, your shares are called away at $260$.

• Sell Put on GOOGL:
  Selling the $GOOGL 20250926 240.0 PUT$  requires minimum margin of about $5,232 (subject to change).
  If GOOGL is above $240$ at expiry, you keep the premium. If below $240$, you will be assigned 100 shares at a net cost of $240$ minus the premium received.