TikTok Sale Speculation - Who's Scooping It Up and What's the Stock price implications
with the clock ticking down to tomorrow's Sept 17 deadline on the TikTok divestiture (thanks to Trump's latest extension—he's basically playing 4D chess with ByteDance), it's time to drop my two cents on who's likely to bag this golden goose and how it's gonna juice some major tickers. TikTok's US ops are a $50B+ beast—170M users, ad revenue exploding past Meta's in Q1, but saddled with that China spyware stigma. If no deal drops, it's ban city, but Trump just tweeted about a "big Trade Meeting" with China going "VERY WELL" and a save for a "certain company young people love." Smells like Oracle's in the endgame, but let's speculate on the frontrunners and the ripple effects. Buckle up— this could be the meme-stock merger of the year.
Top Speculative Buyers: My Shortlist (Ranked by Odds)Based on the latest whispers from DC insiders, Reuters scoops, and Trump's Truth Social teases, here's who I see throwing real weight (or consortium cash) at this. No crystal ball, but Larry Ellison's bromance with Trump puts Oracle miles ahead.
Share Price Implications: Winners, Losers, and My PlaysTikTok's not public (ByteDance's private, valued at $330B in Aug buyback—up 5% QoQ on Douyin/TikTok global rev crushing Meta's), so no direct BDC ticker to pump. But the buyer? Their stock's getting lit. Ban risk evaporates, user growth accelerates, ad dollars flood in—but without the full algo, new owners gotta rebuild (Morningstar discounts vals 20-30% for that headache). Here's the scorecard: Oracle (ORCL): +5-10% pop on announcement (premarket spiked 5% today on Trump's hint). Cloud rev to $144B by 2030? TikTok juices that with data/AI synergies. Long-term: 15-20% upside if they nail US ops, but dilution from $50B debt could cap it. I'm loading calls—Ellison's too connected to fumble. Current: $142.37 (up 81% YTD).
Microsoft (MSFT): +3-7% if they snag it; Azure becomes TikTok's backbone, countering Google/Amazon cloud wars. But they're busy with OpenAI—diversion risk. Hold steady, but MSFT's a beast regardless.
Amazon (AMZN): +4-8% fireworks; turns TikTok into a Prime shopping monster, stealing share from Meta/Shopify. E-comm ad wallet explodes—watch for 10% rev bump. My top speculative long if Bezos bids aggressive.
AppLovin (APP): +10-15% moonshot; they're cheap (P/E 25x), and TikTok adtech would 2x their TAM. High beta play—volatility galore, but reward if they crash the party.
Losers/Watchouts: Meta (META) & Alphabet (GOOG): -2-5% dip; TikTok steals more Gen Z eyeballs/ads (already 15% digital share). If buyer lacks ad chops (e.g., MrBeast circus), Meta/YouTube feast—+5% rebound.
ByteDance Indirects (e.g., SoftBank SFTBY): Neutral; sale cashes out $50B but kills US growth—ByteDance val holds at $330B on China ops.
Broader: If no deal (5% chance), social stocks tank 5-10% on user exodus to Reels/Shorts. But Trump's "deal reached" vibe says otherwise.
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- MatthewWalter·09-17This is a fascinating analysisLikeReport