To The Moon

$GoPro(GPRO)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 

$DJI 45,889 (+0.1%)

$SPX 6,615 (+0.5%)

$NDX 22,314 (+0.8%) 🚀

$VIX 15.34 (+3.9%)

NYSE A/D: 2.1 | Nasdaq A/D: 1.7

New Highs: 1,711 vs Lows: 167

Options: 17.2M calls vs 9.6M puts (P/C = 0.56)

Breadth is improving, resilience is holding, and momentum is aligning with historical analogs. The story isn’t today’s index print; it’s the roadmap for Q4.

🏆 Commodities & Flows

Gold is pushing fresh highs above 3,700 as Q-CTA positioning steadies. The last time gold broke into a multi-year high with systematic support (2011), it added another 20% before momentum cooled. This setup rhymes.

Copper at $10,173/ton: a 15-month high, on Fed cut bets, softer US labor, and +10% H1 China demand. In 2006, a similar copper breakout preceded a multi-year industrial metals super-cycle.

For the first time in a decade, hedged foreign inflows into US assets exceed unhedged. Investors want US equity upside without USD risk. $DXY down 10% YTD, the worst start since 1973, when Nixon’s dollar de-link triggered a structural currency repricing.

🔥 Midday Movers

🚗 $TSLA +6%: Musk’s $1B insider buy, the largest since 2020. In 2020, insider conviction coincided with Tesla’s parabolic multi-quarter run.

🔌 $TXN -3%: under China’s anti-dumping probe.

💾 $WDC +5%: HDD price hikes, new ATH.

✈️ $ALK -5%: weak EPS guide.

🥊 $TKO +4%: $1B buyback.

🥔 $HAIN -25%: earnings collapse.

📱 Tech Watch

$AAPL +1.1%: iPhone 17 preorders outrun the 16. Pro ship times longest since iPhone 11. Golden cross nearing: historically +9% in 6M, +18% in 12M. Echoes the 2014 iPhone 6 cycle, where hardware momentum carried Apple through macro headwinds.

$GOOGL: DOJ seeks technical separation of AdX. Mirrors Microsoft’s late-90s antitrust case, short-term disruption but ecosystem endurance.

$ORCL +3%: speculation it’s tied to Trump’s TikTok deal comments. Enterprise software as a geopolitical bargaining chip is rare, but history suggests it re-rates valuations.

$NVDA: China probes 2020 acquisition. Nvidia asserts compliance. This recalls Qualcomm’s 2015 regulatory battles, where fines were noise vs. demand inevitability.

$CRWV +4.6%: $6.3B cloud deal with Nvidia. NVDA must buy unused CoreWeave capacity through 2032, plus its 6.6% stake. This vertical integration resembles Intel’s 1980s fabs, ecosystem lock-in that creates decades of scale.

💊 Healthcare

$NVO +2.3%: EU approves oral GLP-1 Rybelsus for CV risk reduction. First pill with proven heart benefit (-14% in CV death, MI, stroke). TAM expansion recalls statins in the 1990s, when niche therapies became universal standards.

⚡ Energy & Industrials

$GEV up 5x since Apr24 spin. Melius PT lifted to $740 (from $521). AI-driven data centers are boosting US power demand +2.5%/yr through 2035. Structural echo of the 1950s electrification boom, only this time it’s digital grids powering AI.

⚠️ Policy Risk

Shutdown odds rise into Sept 30.

– GOP pushing 7-week stopgap.

– Democrats want healthcare/Medicaid talks.

– Only 7 working days left.

– Polymarket odds: 55% (▲30%).

In 2011 and 2013, shutdown brinkmanship triggered 15–20% $VIX spikes even as equities later recovered. Today’s setup feels familiar: breadth is improving, but political dysfunction is the volatility wildcard.

📸 GoPro ($GPRO) — my top watch

+7.7% midday with options frenzy (49K calls vs 18K puts). YTD +110%. Broke above 200DMA ($0.96) in July, now firm support. Testing $2.50 resistance last seen early ’24. Upside $2.75–$3.00. Support $2.00 then $1.00.

Technicals: 30m and 4H Keltner/Bollinger expansions confirm trend strength. Weekly chart shows rounding bottom with “MOAT” trendline at $2.90–$3.00; a breakout could unleash parabolic upside.

Greeks: Jan 16, 2026 $3C trading with delta 0.586, gamma 0.179, and IV 145%, market is already paying up for convexity.

Flows: Jan ’26 $3C calls saw 9.6K volume today (+40%). OTM strikes ($5C, $6C, $7C) are lighting up, mirroring speculative action seen in $OPEN before its squeeze.

Trade Idea: Long Jan 16, 2026 $3C calls as an asymmetric bet.

This isn’t just a bounce; it’s a liquidity flush similar to $OPEN’s wedge breakout. With rising call volumes, high IV, and technicals aligning, $GPRO looks like it could get legs soon.

🟩 Breadth Context

The S&P breadth chart shows improving participation: more stocks reclaiming their 200-day SMA. The last two major breadth thrusts of this magnitude came in 2009 and 2020. Both marked the beginning of sustained bull phases, not the end. The echo here is powerful: when breadth confirms price, history shows momentum persists.

I’m framing this market not as random daily moves but as probability-weighted frameworks. History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it rhymes: 1973’s dollar collapse, 2006 copper, 2011 gold, 2013 shutdown, 2014 Apple cycle, 2015 Qualcomm, 2020 Tesla conviction buys, and 2009/2020 breadth thrusts all resonate in today’s setup.

👉❓ Do traders believe breadth expansion and historical echoes can overpower political dysfunction into Q4, or does the shutdown clock force volatility back to center stage?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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