To The Moon

Here is a concise take on your three questions, with current context from China and Tesla’s pivot narrative.

1) Can Model Y L sustain Tesla’s momentum in China?

Near term: likely. The long-wheelbase, six-seat Model Y L launched at ¥339,000 with deliveries beginning in September; Chinese outlets and trackers indicate October slots are sold out, with new orders showing the earliest delivery in November 2025—a strong initial signal. 

Medium term: depends on execution. Sustainability hinges on (i) how quickly Shanghai can ramp the L variant, (ii) whether the Y L is incremental (winning back family buyers from Li Auto/others) versus cannibalising standard Y sales during a softer EV cycle, and (iii) pricing discipline amid intense local competition. Tesla’s China sales trend has been choppy this year, so the Y L needs to convert early buzz into steady monthly volumes. 

2) Is Musk’s “$1 trillion” package bullish for shareholders?

It’s a proposal, not a done deal. The board has asked shareholders to approve a record-scale package tied to very aggressive multi-year targets (e.g., multi-trillion market cap, enormous EBITDA and scaled AI/robotics businesses). In signalling terms, it underscores the board’s commitment to Musk and to Tesla’s AI/robotics roadmap; in financial terms, it would be highly dilutive if fully earned—by construction only if extraordinary value is also created. Treat it as high-beta alignment, not a near-term fundamental driver. 

3) Will the AI & robotics pivot drive the next trillion-dollar wave?

Possible, but unproven. Musk frames Tesla increasingly as an AI/robotics company (FSD, robotaxis, Optimus). Plans include internal factory deployment of thousands of robots before scaling sales, but experts remain divided on timelines and practicality. The upside case is massive operating leverage from software (FSD) and a new hardware category (humanoids); the risk case is regulatory, technical, and adoption slippage. For portfolio construction, treat this as a long-dated call option on top of the core auto/energy businesses. 

Practical markers to watch

China: Y L monthly deliveries vs. order intake, mix vs. standard Y, and any pricing actions. 

Governance: Shareholder vote outcome and final terms of the compensation plan. 

AI/Robotics: Concrete milestones (paid FSD attach/retention, robot trials moving beyond demos to sustained factory tasks).