To The Moon

$Oracle(ORCL)$ $GameStop(GME)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2509(BTCmain)$ 

⬇️ Down movers

I’m noting $SNPS sliding -35% on weak Q3 results and soft guidance, erasing recent strength.

I’m tracking $WOLF down -14% as the Chapter 11 bounce cools.

I’m watching $CHWY -14% after beating Q2 revenue but guiding cautiously.

⬆️ Up movers

I’m tracking $ORCL +33%+ as AI cloud demand explodes, booking $455B in orders, and pushing trillion-dollar chatter. Shares are pacing for the best rally since 1992, +101% YTD.

I’m noting $GME +6% on a Q2 beat, its 5th straight profit, breaking above $24 resistance with the 80-day MA in sight.

⚡ Special catalysts

$ORCL dominated midday tape action:

• Options frenzy: 386K calls vs 344K puts, ~7x normal volume.

• Skew shows cautious optimism: call bias around the 26th percentile but drifting lower.

• CEO Safra Catz sees $144B cloud revenue by 2030.

Street commentary: “Music stops when AI capex stops. Enjoy the party.”

📈 $ORCL is up over 40% today after MISSING on EPS and revenue estimates.

That’s not a typo. Let’s talk about why earnings trading isn’t as simple as “beat = up, miss = down.”

1️⃣ Expectations matter.

Stocks trade vs whisper numbers and positioning, not just the headline estimate. $ORCL backlog blew away Street forecasts, so the demand story outweighed the EPS miss.

2️⃣ Positioning is key.

Heading into earnings, $ORCL had a 10-day put/call ratio in the 93rd percentile. Translation: traders were leaning bearish, so there was fuel for a squeeze when news surprised.

3️⃣ Guidance/backlog > last quarter.

The market cares more about what’s coming next. $ORCL posting $455B RPO (+359% YoY) drowned out the slight miss on earnings.

4️⃣ Options pricing.

If you’re trading earnings with calls/puts, know the implied earnings move. $ORCL carried rich premiums, but today’s 40% gap shows why IV crush doesn’t always kill upside.

Trading earnings isn’t about the number, it’s about expectations, positioning, and forward outlook.

Always check:

• Options implied move

• Sentiment/positioning

• Guidance/backlog

Otherwise you’re just gambling the coin flip!🎲

📊 Options flow

I’m tracking strong bullish flows:

• Market-wide: 21.8M calls vs 13M puts, P/C 0.60.

• $NVO options spiking with 16K calls vs 5.3K puts, led by Dec 65Cs, while SVI sits in the 15th percentile, keeping options cheap.

• Penny-stock frenzy in $ASST: 35,008 contracts traded, implied vol +60.8 pts to 362%.

🛢️ Commodities

CTA positioning mixed:

• Silver leads at +2.1%, momentum firm with a 3M Z-score of 1.4.

• Aluminum strong, one of the highest Z-scores at 1.9.

• Gold cooling as positioning slips to +1.2% with negative Z-score (-0.97).

• Sugar improving with a +1.9 Z-score.

• Grains remain weak: corn (-1.36%) and wheat (-0.42%) still under pressure.

Systematic funds are leaning selective rather than broad.

🌐 Market breadth

NYSE: 2,087 advancers vs 1,570 decliners (A/D ratio 1.33).

Nasdaq: 5,737 advancers vs 4,220 decliners (A/D ratio 1.36).

New highs outpaced lows (NYSE: 398 vs 48, Nasdaq: 1,169 vs 100).

📈 Index action

• $DJIA 45,485, -226 (-0.50%)

• $SPX 6,544, +31 (+0.48%)

• $IXIC 21,945, +66 (+0.30%)

• $VIX 14.82, -1.5%

🔥 Biggest movers

$ORCL stole the spotlight with its explosive surge.

$GME added momentum with earnings strength.

$SNPS collapsed -35% on soft guidance.

$NVO restructured with job cuts but continues to slide -36% YTD.

🏦 Sector snapshot

Triple Witching seasonality looms:

• Historically weak: $MLM, $FRT, $UNP, $CPT, $FE, $O, $KMB, $ALB, $ARE, $FSLR, $MAS, $PLD, $CARR, $AMCR, $VICI, $MHK, $WELL, $ROK, $LDOS, $CLX, $ESS, $LMT, $KR, $TAP, $ED.

• Historically strong: $INCY, $PLTR, $ADSK, $FOXA, $DRI, $MNST, $GDDY, $PCG, $ROP, $ZBH, $RCL, $CCL, $DDOG, $INTC, $NCLH, $NEM, $WST, $HIG, $UBER, $AMGN, $BDX, $TXN, $BMY, $NFLX, $EBAY.

🌍 Macro context

Triple Witching week begins Monday.

• Since 2017: SPX -0.47% avg return, 53% positive, volatility elevated (3.58% std dev).

• Since 2021: SPX -0.29% avg return, only 39% positive.

• Mondays positive 72% of the time, but Fridays average -0.36%, with just 22% positive.

Wall Street YE $SPX targets rising:

• Deutsche Bank: 7,000

• Wells Fargo: 6,650

• Barclays: 6,450

AI capex plus softer tariff impacts remain the dominant fuel for record-high targets.

🔦 Single-stock spotlights

• $ORCL: Nuclear backlog, AI-fueled orders, $1T speculation, and cautious call-biased skew.

• $GME: Breakout on 5th straight profit, still heavily shorted (16.6% float).

• $NVO: 9K job cuts and guidance slash, targeting $1.3B annual savings.

• $ASST: Meme-level options frenzy despite penny-stock pricing.

🪙 Crypto lens

$BTC consolidating near 111K–113K with bulls aiming for 114K–115K, but conviction is fading.

Q-Crypto Risk On/Off indicator is drifting lower after a long “risk-on” stretch, now flipping mixed. Market resilience remains intact, but traders are watching if momentum holds or risk-off pressure takes over.

🛡️ Defensive/staples lens

I’m noting $KMB, $CLX, $KR, and $TAP remain weak into triple witching seasonality. Defensive names aren’t providing their typical cushion.

📊 IPO/market heat

Klarna ($KLAR) launched on the NYSE at $40/share, above range, raising $1.37B at a $15B valuation. Still well below its $45B pandemic peak. Rivals include $AFRM, $GEMI, and $FIGR.

🤖 AI/tech catalysts

$ORCL dominates with explosive AI cloud demand.

$PLTR historically outperforms during triple witching weeks, reinforcing AI as the sectoral anchor in volatility-driven markets.

📉 Technical setups

I’m focused on:

• $ORCL’s ATH surge and options skew confirming bullish but cautious positioning.

• $GME’s breakout above $24 with options-driven fuel.

• $NVO’s battle against 40DMA resistance despite options inflows.

• $BTC holding range highs but showing fading conviction as Q-Crypto Risk On/Off cools.

• SPX edging toward YE targets, but seasonality warns of volatility into triple witching.

🔼 $BE +16.5% at $62.22, earlier tagging a record $65.48. Riding a halo lift from $ORCL and long-term support at its 20DMA. Stock is +187% in 2025.

🔼 $GLXY up after its GK8 unit was tapped as custody tech provider for Korea’s BDACS. Options pits are 🔥 with 229K contracts traded (5x normal intraday rate!!) and the most active contracts are Sep 26 & 27.50 puts.

📌 3 stocks to watch this afternoon

🔼 $GLXY: Options pits 🔥 229K contracts already traded (5x avg)

Heavy action at Sep 26Ps & 27.50Ps.

🔼 $BE: +16.5% & earlier hit record $65.48.

Riding $ORCL halo + strong 20DMA support. +187% YTD.

🔽 $RBRK: -15.3% despite narrower Q2 loss + revenue beat.

Investors worry expectations too high, still +30% YTD.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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