To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 08Sep25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in Singapore, the USA, Hong Kong and China.

Observations (Economic Calendar)

Inflation Data

The most significant data release will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The last reported year-over-year CPI remained at a persistent 2.7%, and a similar reading is likely to introduce market volatility. The CPI is a crucial metric that the Federal Reserve uses to guide its decisions on future interest rate adjustments.

The Producer Price Index (PPI), last reported at 0.9%, will also be released. The PPI is often seen as a leading indicator of inflation, as changes in producer prices can foreshadow shifts in consumer prices. A notable increase in the PPI typically suggests rising inflationary pressures in the near future.

Bond Auctions and Market Sentiment

The outcomes of the 10-year note and 30-year bond auctions will also shape market sentiment. If the prices of these bonds continue to rise, it could lead to capital being reallocated from equities and other asset classes into the bond market.

Labour Market Health

Finally, the report on Initial Jobless Claims should be monitored closely. This data point is a vital reference for assessing the overall health of the economy and is another factor that the Federal Reserve considers when determining its interest rate policy.

Crude oil inventories are an item to monitor. A higher-than-expected inventory level can raise concerns about oil demand.

Earnings Calendar (08Sep25)

There are interesting earnings reports from Adobe, GameStop, Oracle, and Kroger.

Let us look into Oracle in detail.

Analysts have assigned a "Buy" rating for the stock, with a price target of $244.31, representing a potential upside of 4.94%. While technical indicators are currently Neutral, the company has demonstrated strong financial performance.

Observations from the 10-year performance:

From 2016 to 2025, revenue increased from $37 billion to $57.3 billion, operating profit rose from $13.1 billion to $18 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) grew from $2.07 to $4.34. The highest annualised EPS was $4.55 in 2021. The company has also consistently issued dividends, increasing them from $0.60 in 2016 to $1.70 in 2025.

Despite these positive trends, the company's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.4 suggests it may be overvalued. However, it has maintained robust 10-year median margins, with a gross profit margin of 79.6% and a free cash flow margin of 30.8%.

Summary of recent Oracle News (using Gemini LLM)

In summary, Oracle is strategically shifting its focus toward artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud infrastructure. The company has committed $40 billion to expand its AI capabilities, forging partnerships with major players like NVIDIA and Google Cloud. This new direction is also reflected in recent layoffs affecting hundreds of employees, a move aimed at restructuring the workforce to better align with its AI goals.

In addition to its AI initiatives, Oracle has secured significant new business. It recently won a $10 billion multi-year cloud contract with the U.S. Department of Defence and is modernising the operations of NYC Health + Hospitals. The company has also been recognised as a leader in several key industry assessments.

For the coming earnings, the EPS and revenue forecasts are $1.48 and $15.03B. Given the above info, I prefer to monitor the stock for now.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (08Sep25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - currently shows a downtrend as the price ranges.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are indicating an uptrend, but they are converging. Thus, the uptrend should continue, but we can expect a reversal soon.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• The CMF is positive at 0.31, indicating more buying over the past 20 periods.

The technical analysis has recommended a “strong buy” rating for the S&P 500 using a daily interval. 21 indicators show a “Buy” rating and none show a “Sell” rating.

From the above, almost all indicators are bullish.

Candlestick analysis (from Grok)

Short-Term Trend (September 8–12, 2025): Bullish to Neutral

• The Bullish Engulfing (September 3) and preceding Doji (September 2) suggest a short-term bullish reversal from the recent downtrend, with the price rising to 5,367.91. The coming week could see further gains if buying pressure continues.

• A neutral outlook is possible if the price consolidates around 5,367.91 without strong follow-through.

Long-Term Trend: Bearish

• The Evening Star (June 22) confirms a long-term bearish trend, with the price well below 6,000.36 and the 200 MA (5,796.34). The recent uptick may be a correction within this bearish phase.

The outlook is bullish short-term with a bearish long-term trend, suggesting a potential bounce that may face resistance unless momentum strengthens.

Given the above data, we can expect an uptrend but a downtrend is not far away.

News and my thoughts from the past week (08Sep25)

Microsoft says multiple international subsea cables have been cut in the Red Sea. - The Kobeissi Letter

A line graph showing the Office CMBS Delinquency Rate in percentage from 2000 to 2025. The y-axis ranges from 0% to 12%, and the x-axis spans the years. A red line plots the delinquency rate, peaking sharply during labeled events: Oil Bust around 2015, Financial Crisis around 2008, and Recession around 2001. The rate rises steeply from 2020, reaching 11.7% by 2024. A blue horizontal line marks 12%. Text labels include "Oil Bust," "Financial Crisis," and "Recession." A watermark reads "WOLFSTREET.COM 2023."

Commercial Real Estate Office CMBS Delinquency Rate jumps to 11.7%, the highest level in history - BarChart

In a reset, the weak is removed, the wrongs should be made right. The reset is a time to correct the economy. It is also a time for wealth transfer. A recession is an opportunity and not just a crisis.

$2B buy back

There's a massive amount of fear/uncertainty in the US right now - here's the situation: -Students from top schools can't find jobs -Credit card delinquencies surging -Tech & white collar layoffs rising -Middle/lower class getting squeezed -Dollar plunging -Fast food sales slumping -Weak retail foot traffic -Housing/rent affordability at record lows -Housing market frozen -Small biz confidence at decade lows -Wage growth slowing -Persistent inflation The US was firing on all cylinders just a yr or two ago - X user Triple Net Investor

How will education be affected?

Europe's fate sealed. China gets low-cost, dependable Russian pipeline gas that once upon a time powered Europe/Germany. Mongolia benefits via transit. Ukraine used to benefit via transit. "Russia’s gas giant Gazprom PJSC has signed a legally binding agreement to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China via Mongolia, Interfax reports citing Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller in China."

Serious Credit Card Delinquencies (unpaid balances for at least 90 days) hit their highest level in 14 years - BarChart

A line chart displaying total debt balance over time from 2003 to 2024. Two colored areas represent housing debt in blue and non-housing debt in red, showing an upward trend reaching $18.39 trillion. The x-axis labels quarters from 2003 Q1 to 2024 Q1, and the y-axis shows debt amounts from $0 to $18.0 trillion. Text overlay reads "Total Debt Balance" and includes a legend for housing debt and non-housing debt.

My Investing Muse (08Sep25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Civilization 7 developer Firaxis has laid off an undisclosed number of employees as part of its plans to optimise the development process. - PocketGamer Biz

• This time, more than 100 people in Oracle’s Seattle operations have been let go, alongside colleagues in the Philippines, in the Advanced Customer Services and NetSuite groups, per Data Center Dynamics. - Channel Futures

• Almost 200 Seattle-area tech workers were laid off this week in waves of workforce reductions from business-software maker Salesforce and cloud computing giant Oracle. - Seattle Times

A table titled "JOBS REPORT" with columns for MONTH, INITIAL READING, FIRST REVISION, SECOND REVISION, and DIFFERENCE FROM ORIGINAL READING. Rows list data for February 2025 to August 2025, including job figures for each month. June 2025 is highlighted in red, showing an initial reading of 147,000 jobs, a first revision of 14,000, a second revision of -13,000, and a difference of -160,000.

If you take a look at NET revisions just for 2025, the US has seen -482,000 jobs revised out of the initially reported data. This is roughly equivalent to the entire population of Atlanta, GA. All revised out of just 2025's data year-to-date. - The Kobeissi Letter

A line graph displaying the US underemployment rate from 2023 to 2025. The graph shows a fluctuating blue shaded area with a red dashed trend line indicating an upward trajectory. A red arrow points to a peak labeled 8.1% in early 2025. Text overlays include "US UNDEREMPLOYMENT RATE SURGES TO 8.1%" and data labels like "U-6: U-6 Unemployed & Part Time for Econ Reasons & Marginally Attached, SA, Last Price: 8.1." A Bloomberg Finance watermark is present at the bottom.

The underemployment rate in the US just jumped to 8.1%, marking the highest level since 2021. Why is this important? Underemployment counts involuntary part-time workers and those not currently looking for work, but want a job. Millions of Americans have either given up on their job search or can only work part-time. This will soon be 10%+.

Image

After a SECOND data revision, the US went from "adding" 147,000 jobs in June 2025, to LOSING -13,000 jobs. Cumulative payrolls have now officially been revised down by -1.1 MILLION jobs since February 2022. - The Kobeissi Letter

The US now has more unemployed people than job openings. - Globe Eye News

These are some of the layoffs & closures which were announced in the past week. It does seem the unemployment and layoffs continue to trend in a worrisome direction.

What is complicating the job numbers is the constant revision. I would think that people preferred delayed data over revisions. This is not a good reflection of the authenticity.

AI adoption

AI has brought a decline in jobs. How many other jobs were created by AI?

Will OpenAI survive the coming crisis? Can they break even in 2 years?

“Before 2030 you're going to see Amazon, which has massively invested in [AI], replace all factory workers and all drivers … It will be 100% robotic, which means all of those workers are going away. Every Amazon worker. UPS, gone. FedEx, gone," per Jason Calacanis

Will there be more job losses coming up?

Falling supply chain volume

International container booking volumes are down 17% YoY as prestocking cools and the trade war continues - X user Craig Fuller

Trucking volumes headed into Labor Day are down 12% YoY. We did see a small uptick in the second half of August, but it is still abysmal for truckers. - X user Craig Fuller

Will the supply chain industry see more challenges in the days ahead? Let us monitor the import and export volume as these give good references for our economy.

My final thoughts

The US economy is going towards recession at the end of this year, Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, warned in a recent interview. He said the tariffs have hit the purchasing power the hardest, and the US will see more job losses at the end of the year into next.

Mark Zandi has warned that the US economy is heading towards recession. This is a possible outcome. Let us make provision for this.

The McDonalds CEO just gave a reality check for the US economy - and it's ugly for most Americans: "With middle and lower income consumers, they're under a lot of pressure. If you're upper income earning over $100k, things are good. Stock markets are near all time highs. You're feeling, quite confident about things. You're seeing international travel, all those barometers of upper income consumers are doing quite well. What we see with middle and lower income consumers is actually a different story. It's that consumer is under a lot of pressure in our industry. Traffic for lower income consumers is down double digits, and it's because people are either choosing to skip a meal. So we're seeing breakfast, people are actually skipping breakfast, or they're choosing to just eat at home." - CNBC

McDonald’s has shared the drop in footfall for lower-income consumers. Is this the state of the economy for the lower-income bracket? Will this show up in the S&P 500 index? Probably not.

The BLS collects ~90K price quotes each month across 200 categories to calculate CPI. Normally, ~10% of prices are estimated when data is missing. Now ~32% are MADE UP, based on assumptions, not real prices, double the % seen in 2020. - Global Markets Investor

With regular revision of government data, sentiments may take over data’s influence. The government needs to address this, as this can lead to concerns of distrust. This can also affect international investors. Currently, the USA remains one of the most “in-demand” investing markets. The macro overview and falling USD are concerns that are driving some outflow.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

This week, we will focus on reviewing our financial position by analysing our expenditures, income, and savings. Our core principles will be to operate within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage.

I am also conducting a review of our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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